Figure this out, the initial GOP turnout was looking good:

GOP TURNOUT TIDBITS

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NATIONAL

Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote)

Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.

ARIZONA

There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted.

In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)

CONNECTICUT

In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.

FLORIDA

Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted.

Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)

MARYLAND:

Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage.

Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).

MISSOURI

Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote.

2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.

OHIO:

In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)

VIRGINIA:

In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%.

Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.

This was sent out by the Head Internet Campaign guy for the RNC.

H/T MDE

Election Post Mortem

By The Numbers

Did the GOP lose Catholics?

The number one issue in the election was Iraq.

On top of concerns about Iraq, there is great unrest with how the GOP controlled congress dealt with immigration:

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Sept. 29-Oct. 2, 2006. N=1,014 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling immigration?”

Approve 30%
Disapprove 66%
Unsure 4%

“Now thinking about immigration, would you favor or oppose building a fence along 700 miles of the border with Mexico?” (9/29 – 10/2/06)

Favor 54%
Oppose 44%
Unsure 2%

It also looks like McCain might be the go-to guy in 2008:

Our chances at winning back the House in 2008 also seem slim:

Of the 29 seats we lost – assuming all things stand as they are right now – many seem to be destined to stay blue for a while. Here’s a rundown of all 29, and the prospects of taking them back.

Texas CD-22: Leans GOP
Florida CD-16: Leans GOP
Kansas CD-2: Leans GOP
Kentucky CD-3: Leans GOP
Ohio CD-18: Leans GOP
Pennsylvania CD-4: Leans GOP
Pennsylvania CD-8: Leans GOP
Pennsylvania CD-10: Leans GOP
New York CD-19: Leans GOP
California CD-11: Leans GOP
Arizona CD-5: – Tilts DEM
Arizona CD-8: – Leans DEM
Florida CD-22: – Toss-up
Indiana CD-8: – Tilts DEM
Indiana CD-9: – Tilts DEM
Minnesota CD-1: – Toss-up
North Carolina CD-11: – Tilts DEM
New York CD-20: – Toss-up
New York CD-24: – Leans DEM
Pennsylvania CD-7: – Leans DEM
Wisconsin CD-8: – Toss-up
Colorado CD-7: – Likely DEM
Indiana CD-2: – Leans DEM
Iowa CD-1: – Likely DEM
Iowa CD-2: – Leans DEM
New Hampshire CD-1 and CD-2: – Likely DEM
Connecticut CD-2: – Likely DEM
Connecticut CD-5: – Likely DEM

There are also 7 seats won by the GOP by less than 2% of the vote. We need to win 15 seats to get back the majority on top of winning all of those 7 close races and winning all 4 toss ups. It’s a tall order.

Finally, blogs had little influence in this election:

Associated Press-AOL News poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. Oct. 20-25, 2006. N=1,621 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.4 (for all registered voters).

“Do you ever get news or information about candidates and campaigns for the upcoming elections from the Internet or not?”

Yes: 38%
No: 62%

Asked of those who answered “Yes” to question above:
“For each of the following, please tell me if you have used this resource as a way of obtaining information about candidates and the campaign for the upcoming congressional elections on the Internet, or not. How about . . . ?”

News Sites: Yes 86%
Political web sites: yes 46%
Candidates’ web sites: Yes 36%
Blogs: Yes 24%

Think of it this way, only 9% of voters used blogs to get information. About 70 million people voted; take 38% of them and then take 24% of those peoaple and you get about 6 million voters (when I used the actual voter numbers I got 5 million voters) had used blogs in one way or another. That’s actually a big number, but think about this; how many political bloggers are there writing in the U.S. right now? Of the millions of blogs tracked by Technorati or the tens of millions on Blogger; how many of them are political bloggers? My guess is about 5 million. Until blogs can get an audience of someone other than bloggers and journalists (last number I saw showed that 80% of journalists read blogs regularly) we will be unimportant in the national conversation. The point of blogging is to get away from the MSM gatekeepers. We haven’t succeeded yet.

Random Link o’ the Day:

http://www.stickerjunkie.com/index.jsp