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  • August 2012
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From the Notebook

– I have a new novel in the works. I’m completing the reviewer draft now. Then I’ll send it out, get feedback, make changes. My hope is to get this all done and published before the Christmas season, but the book will definitely be done by El Dos. More later, I assure you.

– It’s been a slow couple of months in the self-education department, but I did finish some Khan Academy Playlists: Core Finance, Credit Crisis, and two Art History lists (Medieval Era and Proto-Renaissance).  Core finance is a beast of a playlist, but it has some really great stuff in it. The Art History playlists are really great, I didn’t think I’d continue watching them, but they’re very interesting and well done. I’m close to finishing all the economic and finance videos. When I do, I’m going to return to math and science. Not counting the math playlists (that have expanded and I went through them before KA found a way to track video views), I have completed 15 total playlists.

– I’ll be tracking pWP (political Win Probability) throughout the election cycle, looking especially for events that change pWP. Hopefully, we can begin to understand how and when elections are really decided. What is making this more difficult is the way RealClearPolitics lists their polls. I keep good notes on everything I record in my spreadsheet, but sometimes a Likely Voter (LV) poll reverts to a Registered Voter (RV) for some odd reason [and I don’t use RV polls in calculating pWP], some polls disappear (because they are tracking polls and their totals are constantly renewed) and there have been some other problems. So the graphs may show some changes from time to time, I’ll do what I can to properly account for everything, but it’s been weird.

– This is a depressing personal note; I last appeared on the radio four years ago (Burger Tour interview on NARN). It’s been almost three years since I did a podcast. It was enjoyable while I was there, but it sure is fleeting.

– My dystopian short story about government healhcare is finished, and the remaining sections will be posted up here in the coming months.


Obama pWP

I’ll be tracking Obama’s political Win Probability, a neat stat I invented a couple years ago to turn the standard horserace polls into usable and meaningful information, through to election day. Right now, heading into Romney’s primetime convention speech, Obama has a significant pWP lead:

I take my numbers from RealClearPolitics, and calculate pWP based on the methods described in my first pWP post, which I’ve tacked to the frontpage of the blog.

Burger Tour Update: 5-8 Club

Okay, time for the 5-8 Club burger review. Wednesday I had the Juicy Lucy at 5-8. Basket deal with fries and the unwanted cole slaw. The patty itself was comparable to Matt’s. Not as hot, similar size and quality. Not quite as juicy. 5-8 also loses to Matt’s on the bun. The bun for 5-8 is not a hamburger bun, but rather a dry dinner roll. Burgers come on buns, not rolls. There will be plenty of opportunity for me to gnaw on a stale dinner roll at the upcoming fall weddings. Fries at 5-8 were okay, but again lose to Matt’s. Positives for the 5-8 Club include far more pleasant service. I did not feel rushed. Access to the restrooms is also much easier.

Overall, the 5-8 Club Juicy Lucy loses to Matt’s. After this week’s taste test, I don’t understand all the hype and controversy. One burger is simply better than the other. -m

Everything at the 5-8 Club is better than Matt’s, except the burgers.