Nathan’s Silly Saves

The “Save” is a bad stat with good intentions. It was an attempt to quantify the contributions made by relief pitchers in a way easily grasped by fans and sportswriters. Since most sportswriters are pretty dense, one can really appreciate the sentiment.

Unfortunately, as the save stat evolved, so too did the role of the reliever. In Joe Garagiola’s book “Baseball is a Funny Game” we learn that baseball managers relied on their best bullpen reliever, known as the “short man” to pitch the team out of tight spots when the game’s outcome was in doubt. It didn’t matter when this was, it could be in the ninth inning or the sixth. These relievers eventually picked up the nickname “fireman” because they put out fires.

There is no stat for “fires put out by.” Today, there are leverage indexes and win-percentage stats which give us some indication of the value of a pitcher’s performance based on the specific circumstances of the game. Learning these advanced sabermetrics can be daunting endeavour for the uninitiated.

It’s just easier to count up saves.

So, eventually, managers started to manage not around the circumstances of the game but by the circumstances of save stat. As a consequence, often a team’s best pitcher is not used when the game is in doubt.

Depending on what analysis you use, there is about a 3% difference between using an exceptional pitcher in a save situation and using a mediocre pitcher. The three out, three run save is easy to get.

But what about the four run, one out save? Nathan already has two this year and is likely to get more. On June 28th against the Cardinals, and on July 1st against the Royals Nathan was able to put two easy saves up on the board with little effort.

The reason is because in both games knuckleballer R.A. Dickey was given the task to pitch the last frame. Even good knuckleballers have high WHIPs (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched). They allow a lot of baserunners. Good knuckleballers deal with these ups and downs and Dickey has shown incredible growth this year in handling difficult situations throwing his exceptionally fast butterflies.

In both games Dickey worked through trouble and got two outs. But, once the tying run is on-deck, it’s a save situation. Dickey goes out, Nathan goes in, game over. And the stupidity continues

Maybe these saves will provide Nathan the attention he deserves. Based on sabermetric stats like xFIP and PRC, Nathan ranks among the top three closers in baseball this year. He deserves a spot on the All Star team and getting five or six cheap saves might get him the attention of the national media.

But it’s still really stupid.

I Wonder…

If the lesson Republicans must learn from this Coleman/Franken race is to
get their own hacks into positions as election officials in GOP leaning districts and ignore absentee ballot laws in order to level the playing field with other, more liberal counties in future elections.

Cash for Clunkers

It’s always fun to play “guess the unintended consequences” whenever some new idiocy from Washington D.C. surfaces. The Cash for Clunkers program (CFC) will give between 3500 and 4500 dollars for cars with certain conditions (like low gas mileage) when they are traded in for new cars with better gas mileage.

Some think it’s a stupid idea, I agree.

But since the program is going through it’s important to note what problems it will cause. Here are my predictions as the program evolves:

1) A great number of cars not being used regularly will be turned in for the money. These are tertiary vehicles for people who rarely use them and taking them off the street will do no good since they are, well, rarely used.

2) Poor people will try to profit on their cars. People who drive older used cars with low gas mileage typically aren’t in the market for a new car. But, people buying new cars will want to get the full $4500 trade in value and will start buying these cars from those poorer people who need money more than a car. Prices for these cars will balance where both parties profit from the sale.

3) Poor people who need a car but who can’t afford a new car will have a more difficult time finding a vehicle. The so-called “clunkers” being turned in are usable cars and an important part of the economy. Where a teenager on a fixed income could count on a vehicle in the $1000-$2000 range, now will be paying double (if he can find a car at all).

4) As the program progresses there will be a shortage of low cost, high maintenance and/or high mileage vehicles. The working poor will be hardest hit by this, being forced to spend money on more expensive newer cars or being forced to waste hours of their lives on public transportation (rather than with their families or at second jobs).

5) The shortage of “clunkers” will eventually raise the price of these vehicles above the $4,500 subsidy. Older, high mileage vehicles will no longer be traded in because they have more value to those who need to drive used cars because they can’t afford new cars.

6) Remaining clunkers will not be taken off the streets. There will be fewer cars available to the poor and they will pay more for them. Democrats will take credit for saving the environment even though the program will have no measurable impact on anything.

7) Those of us who held unto our clunkers will enjoy a sizable ROI thanks to raising prices caused by the program.

The consequences of this bill are a mixture of subsidy and price floors and it will be fun to see how many people end being hurt by this. But hey, it’s all to reduce CO2 emissions by .000001% over the next decade and save ourselves .0001 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

Twins Predictions

Fearless predictions for the final half of the Twins season:

-Kevin Slowey will not get 20 wins.

-Scott Baker will win 8 more games

-R.A. Dickey’s ERA will stay below 4.00

-Justin Morneau won’t hit more than 30 home runs

-Joe Mauer will not hit .400, or even .390, but he will hit 25 home runs

-Joe Crede will miss 20 more games

-Delmon Young’s OPS will slip above .700

-Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla will have a combined OPS nearly equal to that of national league pitchers in the second half.

-Danny Valencia will don a Twins Uniform before the end of the year.

-Trevor Plouffe will start at least 10 games for the Twins

-Jason Kubel will have the third highest OPS on the team

-Joe Nathan will blow 4 more saves

-Carlos Gomez will start less than half the remaining games after the All Star break in Center Field

Buckley v. Baldwin

William F. Buckley debated James Baldwin at Cambridge over the issue of race, Enjoy. It’s about an hour.

Buckley’s warning against “The cynicism and despair” promoted by men like James Baldwin really rings true today.

Personal Update

I finished up my global leadership class in the MBA program, and assuming I get at least a 60% on my final paper I am more than halfway through the program. I have just about three weeks before I begin a summer term (they call it “early fall term”) and I was hoping to spend it on some big projects that have been put on hiatus.

While I have a lot of ideas about blog posts and baseball columns, these bigger projects (including the second half of my Rats story) are the only things keeping me near a computer. Also, there are a lot of household chores to get done. Plus the job. So, enjoy the summer. I’ll still post periodically.

Hilarious

They’re brainwashed of course

Where’s the bias?

People Choose News That Fits Their Views

News readers gorge on media messages that fit their pre-existing views, rather than graze on a wider range of perspectives. In other words, they consume what they agree with, researchers say.

The finding comes out of a recent study which tracked how college students spent their time reading media articles on hot-button issues such as abortion or gun ownership.

Unsurprisingly, students gravitated toward articles that supported their views.

Fairly straight forward. People seek out those things that re-enforce their own beliefs, what could possibly be biased about this article?

People with stronger party affiliation, conservative political views, and greater interest in politics proved more likely to click on articles with opposing views, according to the Ohio State study.

“It appears that people with these characteristics are more confident in their views and so they’re more inclined to at least take a quick look at the counterarguments,” Knobloch-Westerwick noted.

Oh yes, of course. Conservatives read both sides only because they’ve been so brainwashed they couldn’t possibly be open minded or thoughtful. They’re just stupid conservatives who can’t understand brilliance when they see it.

However, Knobloch-Westerwick added that her latest study was not designed to assess reader motives, and that she hopes to more carefully study the issue in the future.

D’oh. Didn’t have the numbers to fudge those conclusions, so you just made some stuff up. Good call.

It’s hard to seperate the bias of the reporter from the bias of the study authors, but you get the point. I’ve exaggerated the completely made up conclusions about conservatives, not much though.

Maybe journalists need consciousness raising excercises to discover the true nature of their society.

Dump Delmon Young?

The case against Delmon Young is strong. In about 1500 plate appearances in the majors he has about a 720 OPS (below average, and especially bad for a flank outfielder) and has a terrible glove.

The case for Delmon Young is more complex. An 880 OPS in the minors before he was old enough to drink and his current age being only 23 suggest he has potential upside. In fact, here are the similar batters to Delmon Young through age 22:

Rocco Baldelli (961)
Carl Yastrzemski (960) *
Del Ennis (953)
Whitey Lockman (951)
Carl Crawford (948)
Roberto Clemente (946) *
Jose Guillen (945)
Buttercup Dickerson (945)
Clint Hurdle (944)
Hugh Duffy (939) *

Interesting mix. Rocco is unimpressive, but Yaz is very very impressive. And Clint Hurdle? That’s just horrible.

Considering all the information available, Delmon Young skeptics are being too skeptical. Of course, friends who gush about Delmon Young being the future of the franchise (and there are several) are probably in for a terrible surprise. It’s too late to try to trade Delmon Young, other teams won’t be buying. The best option is to hold onto him. For now.

Burger Tour Request

To all the lovers of burgers in the Twin Cities, I need some help.

I need more burger places. I also need to hear about burger places currently on the tour that have closed down. See, I want to produce another edition of the burger tour sometime before election season in 2010.

So, I have made the entire burger tour available online for free. You can download a copy of the book or read the entire thing in the “preview” window. Also, the price of a hard copy of the book is now set at the manufacturing cost to make it as low as possible.