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The History Channel did Not Find DB Cooper

I’ll be writing up a longer piece in the next few days, but we can already discard the History Channel’s suspect. The money was almost certainly not planted at Tena Bar. Any conspiracy involving The Ingrams (the people who found the money) and some drug lord is absurd. Very disappointing, but it doesn’t surprise me.

[It is not clear from the documentary whether the HistChan team really believes the Tena Bar money find is a plant as part of their Robert RackStraw theory, or not. They talk about the Tena Bar find during the Dick Briggs segment. So how the lost money fits in with Rackstraw hasn’t been enunciated.]

They did link Briggs to Rackstraw and the Tena Bar find. This alone destroys their case.

–Robert (Bob) Rackstraw was a known Cooper Suspect. He was eliminated by the FBI as a suspect back in 1979

–Rackstraw doesn’t appear to fit the particle evidence on the tie either. Though I have to confirm this.

–Rackstraw was about 29 years of age at the time of the Cooper hijacking, whereas most witnesses put Cooper’s age somewhere in the 40’s.

I’ll be waiting for the conclusion on Monday before I discuss this more.

Those interested can visit my DB Cooper post archive and read up on more suspects, theories and information regarding the Cooper mystery.

Day Two:

— The explanation that Rackstraw gave the money to Briggs, then Briggs gave it to the Ingrams to plant at Tena (Tina) Bar is ridiculous. The money was not planted at Tena Bar, it arrived there by natural means.

— Rackstraw is not the guy. The most important piece of evidence is he doesn’t match the tie evidence. The tie is the one piece of new evidence in this case that people need to hear about, and it wasn’t mentioned! DB Cooper likely worked in the industrial chemicals field as an engineer or manager in a metal fabrication shop. He was exposed to unalloyed titanium, and other anti-corrosive metals associated with equipment used in industrial chemicals. We desperately need people who worked in this fields to come forward and discuss what this business was like in the early 1970’s.

BTW, I have written a book on DB Cooper where I lay out the only remaining, viable method for finding DB Cooper. It will be available in Kindle in early September, paperback will take longer. Please contact me using the form below to receive an email when it becomes available (you will receive only one email, no spam.)

Cooper Podcast

I got my name butchered in a podcast:

In 1971, D. B. Cooper hijacked a plane and made off with $200,000 worth of random money. He was never seen again. In today’s episode Jack and J. J. dissect all the details of the case.…

Source: Ep. 42: D. B. Cooper

It’s a fun podcast, they deliver some criticism of my (and Tom Kaye’s) work on the tie. I admit, we’re shooting from the hip on quantifying this stuff. The reason I feel the need to try to connect Cooper to the tie probabilistically is because everything, every piece of evidence in this case, is challenged. Many of the researchers on the Cooper Forum suggest the tie wasn’t Cooper’s. I think is a very wrong assumption. Common sense suggests the tie belonged to Cooper, trying to connect it to him the way I did in my Math Tie post may have been a futile endeavor.

The two ladies also ridicule my attempt to infer future criminality, or the lack thereof, from someone’s reading habits (cf: Dick Lepsy). I still have a hard time believing Lepsy went from philosophy-reading grocery store manager and family man into a plane hijacker, but I’m adjusting my profile of Lepsy in the response to the criticism.

Definitely give the podcast a listen.

DB Cooper: The Money Find

You might have to visit YouTube to watch this video, but it shows live reporting from Tena Bar as the FBI was digging up money. It’s interesting to get a confirmation that fragments were found two feet or more into the sand. We also see Dr. Palmer in the background at several locations trying to figure out what the layers were on the sand bar. This definitively eliminates any kind of red-herring theory. The big question is if the dredge theory can still hold weight.

Personal Update

I’m approaching the end of my series on the D.B Cooper hijacking. I have a few more suspect profiles to finish, then that will be it. I am currently editing a book on the Cooper hijacking, I hope to have it ready sometime in the fall of this year.

If there is anything you wish to ask of me about the Cooper case, or something you wanted me to comment on, or something I might have missed, or any other grievance about this case to air out, please comment on this post or send me a message through the Contact Page.

Freewrite Review

Almost two years ago, I “invested” in what was then called the “Hemingwrite”, a “smart typewriter” that offered a distraction-free writing experience. I just got mine about two weeks ago, and have used it extensively since then. It’s a beautiful machine, a pleasure to type with, and is exactly what I wanted.

I’m a bit of a Luddite, so the idea of a “smart typewriter” was alluring.My writing production has gone down quite a bit over the years, so I was interested in something that would help me get some large projects done. Finally, writing on a laptop is a thoroughly unpleasant experience and I was desperate to try something else. So the Hemingwrite made sense to me.

However, after the Kickstarter campaign, I decided to look into other devices that ostensibly did the same thing. There were apps that turned off the internet on your laptop, and I found other word processors very similar to the Hemingwrite, like the Alphasmart Neo.

I ended up buying a Neo a few months before the Freewrite arrived. The retail price of the Freewrite is about $500, whereas you can get a used Neo for about $50. While the two devices are quite different in form and there are some functional differences, they do the same thing which is allow the writer to simply write.

Well… Buyers’ regret. While I love the Freewrite, it is heavy. Much heavier than the Neo. The Freewrite is also so much more expensive. I like writing “in the field”, often outdoors, and having a $500 device exposed to the elements is anathema to my natural risk aversion. And the functional differences ended up being more significant than I first thought.

The Neo has arrow keys, which allows the writer to go back and do some editing on a completed piece. The Freewrite is a “draft machine” where the only way to go back and do editing is through the delete key. Which is frustrating, since one of the features of the Hemingwrite is the ability to send a pdf file of your writing to your email address. Well, if you can’t do any real editing, what’s the point of making a pdf file of a draft?

The Neo isn’t perfect, the arrow keys are easy to hit accidentally. It takes time for the Neo to transfer files onto a computer, and it has no internet connectivity. However, the difference in price and the greater functionality means that I’m writing this review on my Neo, and not my Freewrite.

The Freewrite is a beautiful machine, and I use it often. In fact, I hope to use it for many many years to come. It is such a pleasure to use. But I’d rather have that money back.

Why Didn’t the FBI Catch DB Cooper

This case is an outlier as it represents the only unsolved skyjacking in American history. The FBI were good at their jobs, they solved all the other cases, so why did Cooper escape justice? The common reaction has been to say Cooper died in the jump so the FBI had no one to catch. This is current orthodoxy in this case: An unknown individual, a loner with few social connections, boarded the plane, jumped with the money, and impacted somewhere in the Washougal watershed. The FBI may not have found his body, but they know he didn’t escape with the money.

However, there are other explanations for why Cooper was able to avoid the FBI. In fact, Cooper would have been the only skyjacker who had a good opportunity to avoid justice because he was the first to actually jump out of the aircraft.

– The FBI, and others, did not expect Cooper to jump. Up to this point in history, all other hijackings had similar modus operandi: the plane would be hijacked, then flown somewhere, often Cuba. (Humorously, the Cubans would arrest plane hijackers regardless of their Marxist views.) It wasn’t even publicly known if an airliner could be jumped safely. Only a very small group of people at the CIA and Boeing knew the 727 was a safe skydiving platform.

-Cooper also lucked out because no one knew how to estimate the drop zone. Thus, during the most important time of the heist, the 24 hours after the jump, the FBI had no idea where to look, other than a vague search area encompassing almost all of Cowlitz and Clark counties in Washington. Himmelsbach even flew his airplane south of Portland in the days after the hijacking, before testing confirmed the Ariel jump location. Later, based on his hijacking and later testing, investigators could pinpoint a drop zone within a few miles.

-Cooper’s audacity resulted in what can only be described as a very slow reaction from law enforcement. During later hijackings, the FBI created a chain of communication that activated search parties, roadblocks, helicopters and flares to a drop zone very quickly during a hijacking. Richard McCoy could actually see the search operations targeting him before he hit the ground. For Cooper, there was almost no ground operation on the night of the jump, and only a cursory search over the following week.

-Finally, it’s clear that, live or die, Cooper made no large purchases with the ransom money. No mistaks were made prior to or after the hijacking. No one recognized him from the sketches; he was not missed by friends or family. Whoever he was, he had no one close to him who could identify him as the skyjacker. This is a significant indicator of his social status at the time of the hijacking, and any suspect has to match this particular situation.

Basically, Cooper and only Cooper could have gotten away with this crime. He was the first guy to attempt such a heist, which was the primary key to his success, and he made no major errors before/during/after the hijacking to get himself caught.

Missing Airmen Cases

At some point during my research of the DB Cooper case, I came across a list of missing planes and airmen. I have since lost the link, so I hesitate to publish this. However, there’s value in realizing that a lot of airmen have gone missing in the United States and have not been found. It’s still perfectly plausible that Cooper died in the jump and disappeared into the landscape. So, here are the missing airmen cases for Washington and Oregon from an unknown source (If you recognize where I got this, please leave a comment):

– 26 November 1945 USAAF C-46A Unknown 12 PAX Sedalia AAF, MO to McChord Field, WA

The transport was on a cross country flight after a refueling stop at Oakland, CA when it ran into a winter storm in southern Oregon. High winds, fog and poor visibility forced the aircraft off course and over the southwestern Oregon coastline where is ran out of fuel. The pilot ordered all passengers to bail out, which took place about 30 northeast of Coos Bay. The pilot and co-pilot rode the plane down and were killed in the crash.

The 10 passengers who jumped became the subject of an intensive air-ground search conducted by over 60 personnel from the ARS at McChord Field, the US Coast Guard, Douglas County Sheriff’s posse and local loggers and woodsmen familiar with the search area. Nine of the passengers and crew were rescued to include a glider pilot who was rescued by loggers after spending over 36 hours hanging in his parachute from a tall pine tree. After five days, nine of the jumpers were rescued alive. However, one of the passengers, SGT Robert T. W. Neal, was never found.

On 18 December 1959, two lumberjacks working for the Weyerhaeuser Timber Co. felled a 200 foot fir tree in the Lake Creek area in Douglas County 45 east of Coos Bay and discovered a parachute and harness snagged in the tree. Two Air Force officers sent to investigate confirmed that the parachute was packed at Sedalia Field in 1945. They stated that all but one buckle on the harness were found still buckled and made it appear that whoever was in it never got out alive.

In April, 1960 the US Air Force sent a 10 man team from Portland Air Force Base to conduct an extensive search around the Lake Creek area. Airmen using rakes, metal detectors and other tools searched around the base of the tree and the general area, but found nothing. The Air Force announced at that time that there would be no more organized searches for SGT Neal.

– 29 November 1945 USN PV-1 BuNo 49459 5 PAX Whidbey NAS to Miramar NAS, CA

The same winter storm that downed the USAAF C46A also downed this aircraft in the Mount Saint Helens area of southern Washington State. Flying into icing conditions about 10 miles east of Cougar, the pilot ordered the two passengers to bail out. One of the passengers, Army 1LT Warren Lawson, successfully bailed out and walked into Cougar on 2 December. However, he could not say for sure what happened to the other four. The other passenger, a young sailor, was found by loggers dead from exposure on 3 January 1946, still hanging in his parachute from a tall fir tree. That same day another parachute was found less than a mile away but no sign was found of the occupant. An intensive ground search was conducted for over a month in deep winter cold but no further trace of the other three crewmen was found.

In August, 1962 a Forest Service ranger found a crude snow shoe made from a military style survival life raft about 10 miles east of Cougar near Swift Reservoir. A search of the area found no other evidence or human remains. This was reported to the State CAB and the US Navy. However, no further investigation was conducted. On 5 August 1963, a Forest Ranger found the crash site of the PV-1. It was located about 10 miles east of Cougar, 8 miles north of Swift Reservoir and approximately 1.5 miles from a logging road.

On 8 August, a team of 8 US Navy personnel from NAS Whidbey Island accompanied by the county sheriff’s and a representative from the State CAB investigated the crash site. What appeared to be a camp site was found on a hill about 100 feet east of the crash site. It appeared that two or more of the survivors may have found their way to the crash site and salvaged what they could in an attempt to survive the winter cold. Remnants of the survival life raft, paddles, a flashlight, torn cloth and clothing, a camera and an empty wallet was found. Two parachutes were found in the wreckage. However, no human remains were ever found. Investigators theorized that it is possible that two of the crew may have rode the plane down and survived the crash. After several days waiting for rescue, they may have attempted to walk out and perished in the forest.

– 10 Nov 1962 USAF F102A 56-1387 1 PAX Paine AFB, WA to Local

The F102A left on a training flight over the Olympics when it vanished. Radar tracked the aircraft to a point NW of Shelton in Grays County. There was no indication of any problems during communications with the pilot, CPT Robert Lucas, 34, with 11 years service in the USAF. A three week search centered on an area 25 miles north of Shelton was conducted by Air Force helicopters, US Navy and Coast Guard aircraft and 20 fixed wing aircraft of the Civil Air Patrol. Rain, snow and high winds curtailed the search on some days. The ground search included over 100 soldiers from the US Army’s 12th Infantry at Fort Lewis, 40 members of the Tacoma, Seattle and Olympia Search and Rescue Councils, 50 Explorer Scouts and 20 airmen from Paine AFB. The only clues found during the search was a faint beeper that was heard in the Mount Tebo area during the first three days of the search, but the source could not be pinpointed. Hunters claim to have heard a crash in the vicinity of Church Creek 3 miles south of Mount Tebo. The search failed to find any other trace of the missing jet.

On 14 May 1965, loggers found a parachute and harness in a tall pine tree in the Camp Gobey area 12 miles west of Hoodsport on the Hood Canal. This was the center of the search area. It appeared that whoever was in the harness cut himself free and lowered himself to the ground. A search of the area revealed aircraft parts and wreckage that were identified as being manufactured by North American Corporation. However, it could not be proven that the harness or the wreckage belonged to the missing pilot. On 4 November 1968, the Civil Air Patrol reported finding wreckage of an unknown F-102A further north in the Olympic Mountains and submitted photos and wreckage for evaluation. Examination of the wreckage revealed an old SAR data plate placed at discovered crash sites by the State that verified the wreckage was of another F-102A that had been previously recovered.

Recently, the family and relatives of the missing pilot announced they are continuing to search for the wreckage of this jet. The area where the jet was presumed to have crashed has long since been logged out and populated. Other than the parachute harness, no trace of the jet was found in that area. The current theory now is that the jet crashed somewhere deep in the southern Olympic Mountains. Other than family members, there is no “official” active search going for this missing jet.

– 28 August 1963 USAF F106A Unknown 1 PAX McChord AFB, WA to Local

The jet intercepter, accompanied by a wingman, flew an afternoon interception mission against a USAF RB-57 out of Hill AFB, Utah. The pilot, 1LT Roger Auxland, 27, from the 489th Fighter Interceptor Squadron, attempted to close on the “target” about 5 miles over the ocean off the mouth of the Queets River on the Olympic Peninsula. The F-106A collided with the RB-57 and exploded in a ball of flames and plunged into the ocean. The damaged RB-57 managed to return to McChord AFB. The wingman thought he saw a distinct “explosion” that looked like the pilot ejecting from his stricken aircraft. This prompted an air-ground search for the missing pilot.

Several leads were developed that led searchers to believe that the pilot may have landed on the rugged coastline. A fisherman who saw the collision also saw a parachute drifting down toward land. Later that same evening a camper heard three gunshots in the vicinity of the beach in the search area. The USAF later estimated that wind and ocean currents could have pushed the parachute within a mile of the shore.

The week long search was conducted by USAF helicopters from McChord AFB, and Coast Guard helicopters from Port Angeles Coast Guard Station as well as fixed wing aircraft from the Coast Guard auxiliary. They were joined that weekend by fixed wing aircraft and ground teams from the Civil Air Patrol. Over 30 members of the Search and Rescue Council from various cities conducted an extensive ground search of the shoreline and a half mile inland. Rescue boats from La Push Lifeboat Station searched off shore.

No trace of the pilot was ever found and he was declared dead by the US Air Force on 4 September 1963.

Finding Dan LeClair

It does us no good to confirm the Gunther text without finding out who Dan Cooper was, where he was from, and what happened to him after the hijacking. It may seem an impossible undertaking as we are given very few clues about the real Dan LeClair, and any or all of these clues may be purposefully false or misleading. Here’s a rundown of what Gunther tells us about LeClair: He was born French-Canadian, later moved to Detroit, then to Newark, he enlisted in the Army during WWII and became a paratrooper, he went to college on the GI Bill, he went into sales for an industrial chemical company and later worked his way up to an executive position, he started a family and had two children, he left his family sometime before the hijacking and permanently left the grid using a stolen identity.

The only clue we can be nearly 100% sure of is that Dan LeClair was a white collar worker in industrial chemical field. According to Alan Stone at the 2011 Cooper Symposium (Smith, p150) there were only four places in the United States where Cooper could have picked up those titanium particles. Employment records from five decades ago are probably scarce to nonexistent. However, family photo albums from company picnics, surviving employees and other records are probably available. Publicity would be our most important ally; people need to know we’re looking for these sources. The Cooper case has a good following, but the latest research needs enough media attention to produce leads. Cooper would be easy to spot, his swarthy complexion and above average height should make him stand out in any photos.

If Dan LeClair really did have children like Clara claims in the Gunther book, they would be in their 60’s or 70’s now and still quite capable of identifying our suspect. We might even be provided some details of his life that we didn’t get from Clara. There would be family photos and other documentation to possibly prove the story. The greatest treasure would be to finally photo-match the tie. This would be quite easy, despite how common his style of tie tack was, because Cooper put the tie tack on backwards.

There are other records to check as well. We have WWII enlistments and WWII casualty records, as well as about 20% of the service records from the war (the rest were destroyed in a fire). Military historians might be able to place LeClair in a certain military unit based on the clues given in the Gunther text. We can compare those records with Census data. The 1940 Census has been available since 2012 and all the records are digitized and available for searching. There are about 400 men born between 1915 and 1939 who were born in Canada and lived in Newark in 1940. If LeClair was really from NYC, the number increases to over 3000. It’s a big list and would take a lot of work to vet all the details, but if any of the information from the Gunther book is true, a few names will stick as possible suspects.

If LeClair was not born in Canada, finding his true identity may prove particularly difficult. Being Canadian by birth reduces the number of people who could be LeClair by a factor of ten. If the French-Canadian lead turns out to be a misrepresentation by Gunther or Clara, only through the leads from the chemical companies will we be able to find viable Cooper suspects. Though I do hold out some hope that, sometime in the future, all records from that era become searchable by electronic means. Death in Absentia records, obituaries, military service records, etc. Unfortunately, this digitization is decades away from completion.

DB Cooper: Losing the Money

Something that is very easy to do in this case is to get lost in conjecture. I have endeavored to stick as closely to the known facts of the case and not make any wild guesses about anything. However there is one area where the Gunther story and the Cooper story diverge, and that is in regards to how the money was lost, and what container it was in during the jump. In order to move forward with the Gunther Hypothesis we have to find some way to bridge the eyewitness testimony of Tina Mucklow, and that of Clara.

First, the best record of Tina’s account of this issue can be found in the summary of her debrief interviews in the FOIA documents available on the Cooper website (emphases mine):

It was also during this time that he complained to Mucklow that he had requested the money be delivered in a knapsack but instead it was delivered in a cloth type bank bag, which displeased him. It was at this time that Mucklow recalls he stated he would be forced to use one of the parachutes to rewrap the money since he had not been furnished the knapsack. At this same time Mucklow says she suddenly observed him having a small green paper bag, contents unknown. She states that she recalled no other packages or luggage belonging to the hijacker except for the briefcase and this small green paper bag. She says it was also about this time she again offered the hijacker something to eat or drink, which he refused.

Mucklow states that at takeoff from Seattle the hijacker was in seat 18-D or 18-E, occupying both seats at various times, and she was seated across the aisle in 18-C. Mucklow states that at takeoff the hijacker was using several seats and was occupied with opening one of the parachutes and attempting to pack the money in the parachute container and attach it to his body using the parachute (container’s) straps. Mucklow recalls that the parachute was a bright pink-orange color. Mucklow’s description is somewhat vague but she says he removed a small jack-knife from his pocket and he cut some portion of the outside container or the parachute in order to secure the money in ‘this’ rather than in the white cloth type bank bag which had been furnished him. She says that she did not see him tamper with the two large parachute containers other than to generally inspect them when she brought them aboard.

This is from her 2nd interview:

After the passengers left Mucklow asked the hijacker if he wanted her to get the other items waiting outside and he said “yes”, but he wanted the other crew members to remain seated. Mucklow then left and brought in one large parachute (back pack). The hijacker told her to lower the window shades, which she did. Mucklow then left again and brought in two small chutes (front packs). Her next trip she got the last ‘big chute’ and placed it with the others in Row 18. At this time Mucklow handed him a sheet of instructions on ‘how to jump and use a parachute’ and he said ‘he didn’t need that’. Prior to all of this Mucklow asked the hijacker if he wouldn’t rather have one of the cockpit crew (men) get the chutes, but the hijacker told her ‘they aren’t that heavy and she wouldn’t have any trouble’.

When Mucklow returned to the plane with the last back pack chute, she saw that the hijacker had one of the small chutes open and was cutting nylon cords out with his pocket knife. He took the nylon cord and wrapped it around the neck of the money bag numerous times and then he wrapped it a few times from top to bottom, and with the same piece (of cord) he made a loop like a handle at the top. This nylon cord was pinckish in color. He appeared irritated that they hadn’t given him a knapsack for the money as requested, and after trying to put the money in an unfolded parachute, he decided to leave it in the canvas bag (and fabricate a holding line for that, instead).

As soon as Cooper got the money, he was working on a solution to the problem of how to attach it securely for the jump. He apparently tried using one of the reserve parachutes as a container, and this didn’t work. He used paracord to wrap the bank bag tight and make a handle to secure it to himself. We don’t know exactly how he did this, but this is what Tina reported seeing. There is no reason to doubt her account.

One thing we do know is Tina said she saw a green paper bag. This is interesting because Clara says Cooper had stashed the money in a green canvas bag, which she later saw on the ground.

Here is what Clara relays to Gunther (p 155-156): “When his foot repaired itself they went looking for the money he had hidden. There was snow on the ground. This changed the look of the land and confused him to some extent, but he had been careful to take note of distinctive trees and other landmarks and had frequently rehearsed the route in his mind.” They were able to find the parachute, but the money bag was missing. They searched again but couldn’t find it. As they ate some food they brought along, a raccoon watched them from a safe distance. “‘That’s it!’ LeClair said. She frowned at him, not understanding. He said, ‘That’s where the money went! An animal dragged it off!'” LeClair had left some food inside the container with the money before he cached it.

A day or so later they returned to the original cache site and searched around the area. Eventually, Clara reports they found the green bag, which had been ripped open by an animal. There was money still inside, and they found some other bundles scattered on the ground nearby. The total, when they took it home and counted it Was about $87,000. Adding that to the $16,000 already in hand, they now had some $103,000. When I first read this part of the book, I thought for sure it implied that the other $97,000 dollars had fallen out of the bag and had been spread across the countryside by the wind. But upon re-reading it, that is clearly not the case. A few bundles fell out of the bag, nothing more.

When I first began investigating the Cooper hijacking, I felt Cooper lost the money when he pulled his ripcord, since it was unlikely he’d be able to tie a knot with paracord that would hold under the strain of a hard parachute opening. Other hijackers lost their ransom in the air, and it took careful planning (notably from hijackers Richard McCoy and Robb Heady) to secure the money properly. In the Gunther book, Clara claims that only half of the ransom was recovered. How is this possible? Either you lose the money, or you keep it. Certainly, losing half the money seems impossible.

According to Clara, Leclair brought a canvas bag, green in color, with him to help carry the money. Clara was sure Leclair had specifically requested twenty-dollar bills. She was mistaken, as Cooper made no demands regarding denomination. In fact, eyewitness reports show Cooper was flustered by the fact the money came in a bank bag instead of the requested ‘knapsack.’ Then there’s the green bag Cooper had with him. If Clara is right, Cooper brought a canvas bag for the money. If he assumed he would be getting fifties and hundreds (not the twenty dollar bills he received), Cooper would have brought a bag big enough for between 2000 to 4000 bills. He got 10,000 bills.

The money weighed about 10 kilos (22 pounds) and would have been bulky and difficult to deal with. His options improve if he splits the money between the two bags. About half was left in a bank bag, half was put into the green canvas container. When his parachute deploys, his canvas bag stays with him while the bank bag breaks away. Thus, the bank bag, wrapped in paracord, was lost somewhere in the Columbia watershed. It eventually gets sent down the river by the strong spring floods, possibly in 1977, and the money gets deposited by water flow on Tina bar. (The actual mechanics involved in getting the money to Tina Bar are a guess, and it’s such a huge point of contention in the Cooper forums I don’t want to state anything positively.)

The fact of the matter is the three or four bundles of money found on Tena Bar could not survive the elements unprotected for so long. they definitely wouldn’t stay together and end up one on top of one another on a sand bar without being together in the bag for a long time. The bills had to spend most of their time protected, and they must have traveled together in the same container to the Tina Bar area. The container breaks apart, and several bundles settle on top of each other. Cooper using two bags matches Tina Mucklow’s testimony about the green bag, it explains at least in part the Tena bar money find, and it aligns with Clara’s story. It’s conjecture but it provides the simplest explanation for all the data.

The Math of the Tie

Many in the Cooper world believe the tie Cooper left behind on the airplane could have been purchased at a thrift store. Indeed, because of the unique mixture of metallic particles on the tie, this is necessary to save their preferred suspect from being eliminated from the case. And truthfully, a tie picked at random from a thrift store had to belong to somebody. The odds of picking a tie belonging to a specific person are very low, but since every tie belongs to somebody with their own background and habits, it’s possible Cooper’s tie has nothing to do with Cooper himself.

But how unlikely is it?

First, Tom Kaye was able to connect the tie to Cooper. The tie belonged to someone who smoked a lot while wearing the tie over a long period of time. We know Cooper smoked and that 44% of men smoked in 1971. Cooper used matches from matchbooks to light his cigarettes. Once again, Kaye found particle evidence on the tie indicating matchbooks were the preferred ignition source for whomever owned the tie for those many years of wear before the hijacking. There is no data on ignition source preferences among smokers in 1971. I would guess it would be about half the population, the other half would use lighters or stick matches.

Therefore, even though we can’t get an exact figure, we can roughly estimate the probability of someone randomly picking a tie at a thrift store which matches their own smoking habits and preferred ignition source at 22%. Or, put another way, there is a 78% chance the tie belonged to Cooper long before the hijacking ever happened. If some evidence was found that Cooper was left handed (other than the placement of the tie tack itself), we could be over 97% certain the tie belonged to Cooper.

There’s another wrinkle here. Not only does the tie have to match Cooper’s habits by chance, Max Gunther has to match Dan LeClair’s career and life to what was later found on the tie, again by random chance. There are two ways of looking at this question, one is through the real distribution of jobs, the second is by using the number of jobs Gunther could have picked from if he picked one at random from a list.

Using the actual distribution of the labor force, Gunther would have to pick a white collar job in the manufacturing sector. According to the 1970 Census, manufacturing accounted for 27% of the workforce. White collar work accounted for about 47% of jobs. Taken together, there is a 13% chance Gunther would pick the right job in the right sector. We’ll use this as our low estimate.

It is unlikely, in my mind, that Gunther would be even thinking about the distribution of jobs if he were creating a fictional story.* Rather, he would likely choose from jobs he, as a journalist and author, would be familiar with. And likely, he would be familiar with many many jobs and careers. In the 1970 Census, they profile more than 400 different jobs and careers by category and sector. If Gunther just picked something at random, we can safely say he had about 400 real choices.

So, on the conservative side of our estimate, there is a 13% chance Gunther picks the right sector and type of work, and there’s a 44% chance Dan Cooper picks a tie at random that matches his smoking habit (ignoring, for a moment, the matchbook question); doing some basic probability calculations, there’s only a 5.7% chance of these two events aligning in the way they have in this case. More realistically, we can say that there were over 400 possible careers for Gunther to choose from, and using the 22% estimate about Cooper picking a tie at random from earlier, we got the chance of these two independent events aligning at about 1.1 in 2000.

Yes, there’s room to disagree about some of the particulars. You can adjust the parameters as you see fit. Regardless, this is a highly unlikely circumstance. We are asked to believe that Dan Cooper, living in the Pacific Northwest in 1971, bought a tie at a thrift store to wear on his hijacking and that tie would later prove to have particles that could have only been obtained in an esoteric industrial situation. Then we would have to believe an author living in Connecticut over a decade later would pick that same situation for his fictional DB Cooper character for a fake story he hoped would dupe enough people to make him some money. What side of the bet would you like to be on?

*This is a major reason why I don’t think Gunther is making any of this up. A novelist chooses the careers of his character for some specific purpose. He needs a rich character, or a miserable character, or some other quality to help move the plot. Picking industrial chemicals doesn’t add anything to the character of Dan LeClair.