So we have our first “big event” of the 2016 election: Christie’s recent “Bridgegate” scandal, and this means we can take a look at how such a scandal affects the political win probability of a candidate.
Before the scandal, a head to head matchup between Christie and Hillary had Hillary up 48-44 with a 4.4 MOE. This gives Hillary an edge in pWP of 65.
After the scandal, Hillary moves up a little, to 50%, while Christie’s support implodes to 37%. New Hillary pWP is 92. So the scandal had an absolute value of 27 pWP (in the wrong direction) for Christie.
Yes, we’re three years out and yes, we’re using a poll that is basically meaningless as far as predictive value for the 2016 election goes. However, it does give us some idea of the seriousness of the scandal and possibly how similar scandals might affect future candidates (or indeed, how much this scandal will hurt Christie as he looks forward at a once promising political career).