The Rasmussen and Gallup polls showing Romney up have shifted around the pWP numbers. The popular vote is now a tossup, and Obama’s pWP lead in Ohio has gone down slightly.
No graphic, this is just a quick update. A PPP poll was recently posted on RCP; Obama has a 82.3% chance of winning Ohio, based on every publicly available poll released in November. No poll has shown Romney ahead in Ohio since October 28th. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have similar enough polling histories (this year) that we can treat the entire region about the same (i.e. they’re not independent of each other, an outcome in one is likely to be indicative of all of them, which is why I haven’t been posting pWP numbers for those other states). It’s practically impossible for Obama to win without Ohio, so I would put Romney’s chances of winning the election right at 20%. In fact, you could probably cut that in half too, as Romney has to win Ohio and one other state, and that state is likely Colorado, where pWP numbers have the race as a coin flip. So let’s call it a ten percent chance Romney wins. Or, every poll done by all the major polling agencies are completely wrong, and Romney will win in a landslide. But I’d start selling those Romney Intrade contracts and buying Obama, if I were you.
- Latest polls make nervous reading for Obama (itv.com)
- Ohio Will Deliver for President Obama (anaffairinredsquare.com)
- US set for final campaigning day (bbc.co.uk)
- Current Obama pWP: 46% (martinandrade.wordpress.com)
A week ago, the national polls and the state polls were contradicting each other. They couldn’t both be right, so I’ve been watching to see if the state polls would regress toward the national polls, or vice versa. It’s vice versa: