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  • October 2010
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Rasmussen Poll

The latest Rasmussen poll in the MN Gov race has Dayton up by two points on Emmer; 38-40-15 (Horner is the fifteen). This is a 65% pWP (political Win Probability) for Dayton and it closely matches a previous Rasmussen poll and the average pWP for Dayton so far in this campaign. What gets me is Horner’s 15%, which I think is too high. Rasmussen says it will likely stay that high, at least 10% of the vote will be Horner’s. That’s good news, if true, for Emmer. If undecideds and a surprise conservative turnout break for him, he could easily close the gap on election day. Right now this race depends entirely on GOTV.


links for 2010-10-07

  • Quote:"The Democrats in swing districts (D+1 through D+5) fare little better, averaging 44 percent of the vote. Another 28 haven't been polled. As is the case with the Senate, Democrats don't start posting consistently solid numbers until they hit roughly the D+8 mark.

    // The D+8 number is a good one to go by. A lot of congressional districts will have no polling done, due to the expense. But any district with a Democracy that is less than D+8, i.e. the district votes on average for Dems at an 8% clip, are in play. Using the 2008 presidential election results as a measuring stick, you can easily find out if a dem incumbent might be in trouble, even withuot a poll.

  • Quote:"Alliance for a Better Minnesota is a group funded primarily by labor unions and the family of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mark Dayton. It ran several TV ads attacking the GOP’s eventual nominee, Tom Emmer. It raised nearly $1.7 million prior to the state’s Aug. 10 primary.

    The group’s initial funding was funneled through two other state-level groups, but the sources could be traced through disclosures filed under Minnesota’s campaign finance laws.

    Dayton’s ex-wife, Alida Messinger, donated $500,000 on May 21, 2010, to a group called "WIN Minnesota Political Action Fund," and various other Daytons donated a total of more than $300,000 to the group this year. WIN Minnesota then passed on $900,000 to ABM’s "Action Fund" on July 7 — making up more than half of AMB’s pre-primary total.

  • Quote:"The Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a non-profit backed by unions and supporters of DFL gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton, is taking heavy aim at Tom Horner.

    After focusing much of their criticism on Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer, the group is turning its attention to Horner, the Independence Party candidate who is winning steady support in the polls.
    In a new website, “The Truth About Tom Horner”, the group said Horner has been a “Republican insider for 30 years” and that Horner’s former public relations company, Himle Horner Inc., has won state contracts because of its political ties. “Can a 30-year Republican operative really call himself an independent?” the website asks.

    // What I was referencing in an earlier blog post on Horner.

    (tags: mnpolitics)
  • Quote:"Regardless, the sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday's jobs numbers. The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government's job release suggests.

    // Gallup collects numbers in a different way than the government, and they suggest the last two weeks of September created a lot of unemployment, and that the underemployment numbers don't explain the increase. Bad bad bad.

  • Quote:"A 2003 study published in Diabetes Care showed that as little as one teaspoon of cinnamon per day can boost the body’s weight-loss ability by reducing blood sugar and promoting healthier processing of carbohydrates. It also lowers LDL cholesterol (bad cholesterol) by seven to 27% and total cholesterol by 12 to 26%. Plus, cinnamon has been shown to prevent the metabolic syndrome commonly seen in pre-diabetics. But before you go on piling the spice by spoonful, note that cinnamon contains a chemical called coumarin, which can lead to liver damage if consumed in very large amounts.