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Tom Horner

There is a great disagreement between the MNGOP and DFL camps in the media (mainstream and otherwise) over the possible affect Tom Horner’s campaign may have on the outcome of the 2010 MN Gubernatorial election.

Having looked at lots of polling data over the years, I can pretend to make an intelligent guess as to whether Horner hurts or helps Emmer.

Horner is attracting slightly more DFL support than GOP support. Not by much. So you might immediately think “It helps Emmer!”

Not so fast.

The IP generally loses support as the general election approaches, most of it is lost the day of the election.

This means there will be more DFL votes picked up by their champion (Dayton is my bet) than by Emmer. I’d say it’s a full percent gain on election day.

With Dayton leading a three-way race already, this is bad news for Emmer.

We’ll see how the campaign develops. Right now, Emmer has a hole to work out of.

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