I made an error in my prediction yesterday, I had Kerry winning Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Hawaii. I have Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and West Virginia going to Bush, which means Kerry wins 279-259. In the popular vote, I have Bush up by a half a percent, 49%-48.5%. Voter turnout will pass 50% nationwide. Fifty-one million voters to Bush, about fifty million to Kerry, the slack being pulled by Nader et al. We’ll call this a 60% confidence interval.
I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt it. Undecideds in swing states are going to break Kerry, especially in Hawaii, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio.