Posted on November 5, 2012 by Marty Andrade
No graphic, this is just a quick update. A PPP poll was recently posted on RCP; Obama has a 82.3% chance of winning Ohio, based on every publicly available poll released in November. No poll has shown Romney ahead in Ohio since October 28th. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have similar enough polling histories (this year) that we can treat the entire region about the same (i.e. they’re not independent of each other, an outcome in one is likely to be indicative of all of them, which is why I haven’t been posting pWP numbers for those other states). It’s practically impossible for Obama to win without Ohio, so I would put Romney’s chances of winning the election right at 20%. In fact, you could probably cut that in half too, as Romney has to win Ohio and one other state, and that state is likely Colorado, where pWP numbers have the race as a coin flip. So let’s call it a ten percent chance Romney wins. Or, every poll done by all the major polling agencies are completely wrong, and Romney will win in a landslide. But I’d start selling those Romney Intrade contracts and buying Obama, if I were you.
Filed under: Political, pWP | Tagged: Barack Obama, Michigan, Mitt Romney, Obama, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Romney, Wisconsin | Comments Off
Posted on July 1, 2011 by Marty Andrade
Image via Wikipedia
Governor Walker’s union curtailment has become law:
“The monetary part of it is not the entire issue,” says Arnoldussen, a political independent who won a spot on the board in a nonpartisan election. Indeed, some of the most important improvements in Kaukauna’s outlook are because of the new limits on collective bargaining.
In the past, Kaukauna’s agreement with the teachers union required the school district to purchase health insurance coverage from something called WEA Trust — a company created by the Wisconsin teachers union. “It was in the collective bargaining agreement that we could only negotiate with them,” says Arnoldussen. “Well, you know what happens when you can only negotiate with one vendor.” This year, WEA Trust told Kaukauna that it would face a significant increase in premiums.
Now, the collective bargaining agreement is gone, and the school district is free to shop around for coverage. And all of a sudden, WEA Trust has changed its position. “With these changes, the schools could go out for bids, and lo and behold, WEA Trust said, ‘We can match the lowest bid,'” says Republican state Rep. Jim Steineke, who represents the area and supports the Walker changes. At least for the moment, Kaukauna is staying with WEA Trust, but saving substantial amounts of money.
Then there are work rules. “In the collective bargaining agreement, high school teachers only had to teach five periods a day, out of seven,” says Arnoldussen. “Now, they’re going to teach six.” In addition, the collective bargaining agreement specified that teachers had to be in the school 37 1/2 hours a week. Now, it will be 40 hours.
The changes mean Kaukauna can reduce the size of its classes — from 31 students to 26 students in high school and from 26 students to 23 students in elementary school. In addition, there will be more teacher time for one-on-one sessions with troubled students. Those changes would not have been possible without the much-maligned changes in collective bargaining.
Read the whole thing at the Washington Examiner and realize how utterly awful Republicans are.
Filed under: Education | Tagged: Collective bargaining, Republican, Wisconsin | Comments Off