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Personal Update

I’ll be taking a bit of a break after the election. My pWP stat did great, it was over 94% accurate in predicting the races where I was keeping track, and that’s a higher percentage than the model itself would expect. The model only failed to be predictive in races where there wasn’t regular polling (North Dakota). I’m hoping to write a long and detailed analysis of the 2012 election and codify all the lessons I learned in using pWP to create a guide for future elections. But I’m going to start a new job here very soon, so I may not get to any of that at all. There will be a few posts on here, from time to time, but for now I have some other big projects to get to. I’m still working on the final draft of a novel, which should keep me plenty busy. Thanks everyone for your interest in my pWP stat, I hope my Republican friends learn to embrace polling as another tool in winning future elections.

Obama pWP: 52%; Ohio pWP: 73%

Anything in the 40-60 range is a tossup as far as pWP goes, so I can’t predict who will win the popular vote. However, Ohio is strongly leaning in Obama’s direction. Romney has to win Ohio and one other swing state, so I would say there is a one in eight chace Romney wins. Again, this is just based on polling data. I have a gut feeling Romney is going to do better than what the polls are suggesting, but I can’t quantify that.

Here are a bunch of graphs and tables:

Current Obama pWP: 46%

Here’s Obama’s pWP for the last 11 polls taken over the previous week (the data overlaps so you don’t see all the dots), with a linear trendline:

And here’s the table of rolling averages:

I don’t feel comfortable predicting who will win the popular vote, but I would feel especially uncomfortable with the way the race is shaping up if I were Mitt Romney.

Current Obama pWP: 43%

The pWP spread continues to shrink:

And Obama’s moving averages are slowly moving up:

As a general rule, I consider any pWP between 40 and 60 to be a coin flip. And, barring a surprise, it looks like predicting who will win the popular vote in this race will require a fair coin toss, not a collection of polls.

Current Obama pWP: 42%

Obama’s numbers are consistently ticking up, bit by bit:

Also, I’ll be keeping track of all the nationwide polls as they’re posted, and I will be giving two and three-day rolling pWP averages:

I think I’ve approached the limit of my OpenOffice spreadsheet abilities, as I won’t be able to graph the rolling averages they way I’d like to. However, this should be fine, I’ll just have to publish a bar graph every day.

Current Obama pWP: 36%

Regardless of whatever political analysis being floated on the subject, the debates have been a very big net positive for Mitt Romney. He enters the final debate tonight with a slight lead in pWP.

Current Obama pWP: 77%

The preliminary pre-debate pWP numbers are in, and right now Obama has a significant lead of 77% pWP:

The Obama Recovery

Via Mitch Berg, This article explains the economy rather well:

Based on the long standing history and rhythms of the American economy, we should have had a booming recovery by now. Even more so, since the deeper the recession the stronger the recovery. Real economic growth in the first 4 quarters of Reagan’s recovery from the deep 1981-82 recession was a whopping 7.7%. Even the recovery under President Ford from the deep 1973-74 recession sported real economic growth of 6.2%.

But under President Obama we are already in another downward spiral, with real growth falling from 5% in the fourth quarter of 2009, to 3.7% in the first quarter of this year, to 1.7% in the second quarter.

Moreover, as the brilliant economist John Lott explained for FoxNews.com yesterday, the base unemployment rate has been stuck at least at 9.5% for 14 months now, over three full percentage points higher than the average unemployment rate during the recession. Since Obama became President, the U.S. unemployment rate has increased faster than 25 of 30 other major industrialized countries, as reported by the Economist.

As Lott summarizes, “For the last couple of years, President Obama keeps claiming that the recession was the worst economy since the Great Depression. But this is not correct. This is the worst ‘recovery’ since the Great Depression.” The extended stagnation, high unemployment, and the troubling potential for a double dip recession is starting to look more like the Depression itself now

The Obama Recovery
The Weakest Recovery
The Keynesian Recovery
The Worst Recovery

Any of the four are apt.

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