I’ll be taking a bit of a break after the election. My pWP stat did great, it was over 94% accurate in predicting the races where I was keeping track, and that’s a higher percentage than the model itself would expect. The model only failed to be predictive in races where there wasn’t regular polling (North Dakota). I’m hoping to write a long and detailed analysis of the 2012 election and codify all the lessons I learned in using pWP to create a guide for future elections. But I’m going to start a new job here very soon, so I may not get to any of that at all. There will be a few posts on here, from time to time, but for now I have some other big projects to get to. I’m still working on the final draft of a novel, which should keep me plenty busy. Thanks everyone for your interest in my pWP stat, I hope my Republican friends learn to embrace polling as another tool in winning future elections.
- Nate Silver: Obama’s big win doesn’t mean the 538 guru is an electoral genius (slate.com)
- Republican Rick Berg concedes to Democrat Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota … – Washington Post (blog) (washingtonpost.com)
- Nate Silver Went 100% on Election Day: Super Accurate Statistical Analysis or Luck? (dailyfinance.com)
Filed under: Personal Update, Political Tagged: | Barack Obama, Democratic Party (United States), Election, Electoral college, Heidi Heitkamp, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, New York Times, North Dakota, Politics, President, Republicans, Rick Berg, United States