Anything in the 40-60 range is a tossup as far as pWP goes, so I can’t predict who will win the popular vote. However, Ohio is strongly leaning in Obama’s direction. Romney has to win Ohio and one other swing state, so I would say there is a one in eight chace Romney wins. Again, this is just based on polling data. I have a gut feeling Romney is going to do better than what the polls are suggesting, but I can’t quantify that.
Here are a bunch of graphs and tables: