No Signal, Just Noise

The first few polls with reactions to the third debate are out, and when combined with the other recent polls… Well… I don’t want to talk about it:

That’s a lot of noise. Obama’s pWP average over the last week is 55%. That doesn’t mean much when the data is so scattered about. Here is a graph of just Obama’s pWP numbers, without his level of support included:

Unlike in previous weeks where there was a clear central tendency in the polling numbers, the pWP numbers since the VP debate have been ambiguous and to a surprisingly strong degree. I have never seen data so stubbornly and amazingly ambiguous.

On the state level, where the election will actually be decided, the numbers are much less confusing. Obama has comfortable leads in Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. While, just based on popular vote, this is looking like a coin flip, the actual distribution shows Obama is in a very strong position for re-election. I’ll be taking a closer look at Ohio in later posts.

If you’re looking for a big tip, might I suggest picking up the Obama to win contract at Intrade.

Related articles

• Romney could win the popular vote and lose the election. (greatriversofhope.wordpress.com)
• Intrade Manipulation Fail (marginalrevolution.com)
• NATE SILVER: Intrade’s Wrong — Obama Has A 69% Chance Of Being Reelected (businessinsider.com)
• Everyone But Nate Silver Thinks Obama’s Lead Is Evaporating Fast (businessinsider.com)

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