The pollsters, other than Rasmussen and Gallup, took some time off after the conventions, so there’s a hole in the data (I don’t want to over-sample Rasmussen, so I only record Rasmussen’s moving average every third day or so, except during high-leverage events). Here’s a graph showing Obama’s level of support in the polls, and corresponding pWP:
I added some linear trendlines, not because I believe in anyway whatsoever that a linear model makes any sense, but because it does help show the relationship between Obama’s level of support in the polls and pWP (small movements in support make big changes in pWP).
It will be a couple of days before I have all the data, but it looks like Obama’s aggregate pWP has settled back down into the 65% level.
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