From the Notebook

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Read:

-”The Everlasting Man” by GK Chesterton. Chesterton presents two ridiculous ideas. One is that man is just another animal. The other, that Christ was just another man. It was a reductio ad absurdum argument for the Christian faith, and one that is surprisingly strong. This is the first actual book I’ve read from Chesterton, though I’ve been reading bits and pieces of his writings for a long time. This book is a great place to start.

- “On Interpretation” by Aristotle. In this short work, (ch 1-10 are part of the Great Books of the Western World ten-year reading plan) Aristotle creates the first philosophical work dealing with language and logic. (The first work we know about anyway). Beyond creating the foundation for what would later become symbolic logic in chapter 9 he makes a famous case against fatalism.

- Proverbs; The Bible.  This book was the book a friend recommended I read way back when I was in high school. He told me this was the easiest book of the Bible to read (it is, 31 short chapters, read one a day and you’re finished by the end of the month). There is a lot of great stuff in this book, words of wisdom that rank with any contemporary text both in the Eastern and Western traditions. It is a great way to start reading the Bible. This particular reading was the NLT.

Related Articles

• The Case for GK Chesterton (theatlantic.com)
• The Chesterton Fetish (andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com)
• Aristotle: Friendship Vs Capitalist Crisis (politics.ie)

links for 2010-10-30

• NationalJournal.com – The Gray And The Brown: The Generational Mismatch – Wednesday, October 27, 2010
  // And had conservatives engaged the Hispanic community it would not be a big deal. Instead, conservatives were demanding the deportation of millions of Hispanics.
  (tags: demographics race politics population economics generations diversity)
• List of landmark court decisions in the United States – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  // Have all these read by Monday, faithful readers.
  (tags: conservative.canon weekendreading)

Dayton v. Emmer

It’s time to move beyond polls and look at potential vote totals in the Governors race.

Believe it or not, this should be very predictable. Over the last two elections, approximately 2,200,000 voters cast their ballots in both 2002 and 2006. In fact, the vote total actually went down about 50,000 votes from 2002 to 2006. About a million voters went for Pawlenty in 2006, about a million for Hatch, and about 150,000 votes went to Hutchinson.  In presidential election years, turnout is higher. Coleman and Franken each got about 1.2 million votes, and Dean Barkley got 437,000 votes. This represents the vote total ceiling.

Dayton will get a million votes. That’s easy. That’s the DFL base. There won’t be much more on top of that, perhaps 50,000 to 100,000 votes. Peter Hutchinson will get 200,000 to 250,000 votes. His support has varied widely, but has consistently been stronger than Hutchinson’s in ’06. He looks more like Penny in 2002, who got 360,000+ votes in 2002. Horner is no Tim Penny, but 250,000 votes is very plausible.

With Dayton topping out at 1.1 million, and Horner topping out at 250,000 votes, this leaves less than a million voters for Emmer. About 900,000 votes.

Past results are not destiny. Dayton is not a popular character. It’s completely possible that, in this environment, he will struggle to get a million votes as frustrated Democrats stay home. But Emmer is also hurting from the beating he has taken in this election. Can he find an extra 200,000 votes? Sure. I wouldn’t bank on it, but this is an unusual election cycle. Emmer should be able to match Pawlenty’s total in 2002.

Still, any way I look at it, I see an election that will, in the best circumstance, be decided in Emmer’s favor by less than 50,000 votes. This race is not a coin flip. I give Dayton a solid 70% win probability.

Related Articles

• Dayton spent most, Emmer most left in Minn. race (sfgate.com)
• Dayton Widens Lead in Minnesota (politicalwire.com)
• Horner hopes third-party risk pays off Election Day – Minnesota Public Radio (news.google.com)

links for 2010-10-29

• Kickoff into 40-mph wind travels backward 12 yards – Prep Rally – High School  – Yahoo! Sports
  Quote:"That's right, the game's second kickoff technically accounted for minus-12 yards, and the kicks that followed later in the game were equally fluky. With Lakeville North holding a 7-6 lead in the first quarter, the two teams traded punts that travelled the following distances, in succession: 15 yards, 28 yards, 39 yards, 2 yards and 18 yards. Later in the game, a kickoff sailed through the uprights. If that had been a legal field goal, it would have counted as a 70-yarder.

  // The great MN hurricane.

  (tags: Football sports Minnesota)
• How SimCity Teaches Us The Pinnacle Of Urban Planning Is A Totalitarian Death State – The Consumerist
  // If only a videogamer ruled my life.
  (tags: Computer games government humor planning simcity state)
• Emmer Campaign Releases Internal Poll Showing a Dead Heat in the Race for Governor – Press Releases – News – Emmer for Governor
  Quote:"To make sure voters have more accurate and statistically reliable information about the Minnesota Governor’s race, the Emmer Campaign today is releasing results from its own internal poll conducted on October 24th and 25th by Public Opinion Strategies. The poll of 500 likely voters shows the race for Governor tied: Dayton 40, Emmer 40, Horner 13. The poll has margin of error ±4.38% and is more in line with recent results from Survey USA and Rasmussen and in stark contrast to the ridiculous polling done by the Star Tribune and MPR.

  // Looks like Emmer tops out at 41%, Dayton at 44%, Horner at 13% with 1% going elsewhere. Both main candidates should hit 40% with ease. So it's going to be a nailbiter.

  (tags: elections2010 mnpolitics)
• GDP growth tepid in Q3, more Fed easing seen – Yahoo! Finance
  Quote:"U.S. economic growth edged up as predicted in the third quarter but not enough to chip away at high unemployment or change expectations of more monetary easing from the Federal Reserve next week.

  Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.0 percent annual rate as consumer spending rose at its fastest pace in four years, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

  While consumer spending quickened and business investment continued to expand, much of the rise in demand was met by overseas production and domestic goods continued to pile up in warehouses, suggesting tepid growth in the fourth quarter.

  // 2% GDP growth is not good. This is just not a recovery.

  (tags: economics economy)
• Man Dies Of Caffeine Overdose
  Quote:"A British man died after poisoning himself with two spoonfuls of caffeine powder bought over the internet, local media reported Friday.

  Michael Lee Bedford, 23, from Mansfield, central England, was at a party in April when he swallowed caffeine powder that a friend bought online for £3.29 ($5.26), Nottingham Coroner’s Court heard Thursday.

  He washed the powder down with an energy drink, and around 15 minutes later began sweating and vomiting blood. He later died at King’s Mill Hospital in Nottinghamshire, central England, the Nottingham Post reported.

  // Wait till we see this stuff banned.

  (tags: caffeine food health)
• Local News–Dayton Emmer
  // 39-38-13 in this survey usa poll versus with 44- 41- 10 in Rasmussen [One percent (1%) favors another candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.]

  That's really close and hard to model. Dayton isn't polling above 44% anywhere. Emmer could be right there.

  (tags: elections2010)

links for 2010-10-28

• Stop Looking For a Wife: You Won’t Find One
  Quote:"So there we have it: there are no more wives, only brides; no more marriages, only weddings. And this change in our society happened over half a century ago.
  (tags: gender Marriage ludditism futurism)
• Mark Dayton Volunteer
  (tags: personal mnpolitics satire video)
• Shot in the Dark » Blog Archive » Chaos
  // The Italian invasion of Greece.
  (tags: history MOB weekendreading WWII)
• Japan's young men seek a new path
  // The American version of the Herbivore movement is already beginning.
  (tags: culture economics herbivore.movement japan sociology work)

links for 2010-10-27

• Dopamine receptor D4 – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  Quote:"The dopamine receptor D4 is a G protein-coupled receptor encoded by the DRD4 gene.[1] As with other dopamine receptor subtypes, the D4 receptor is activated by the neurotransmitter dopamine. It is linked to many neurological and psychiatric conditions including schizophrenia, Parkinsons disease, bipolar disorder, addictive behaviors including sex addiction, and eating disorders such as anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and binge eating.

  // Why did I bookmark this….

  (tags: liberalism)
• Scientists Find 'Liberal Gene' | NBC San Diego
  Quote:"According to scientists at UC San Diego and Harvard University, "ideology is affected not just by social factors, but also by a dopamine receptor gene called DRD4." That and how many friends you had during high school.

  The study was led by UCSD's James Fowler and focused on 2,000 subjects from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Scientists matched the subjects' genetic information with "maps" of their social networks. According to researchers, they determined that people "with a specific variant of the DRD4 gene were more likely to be liberal as adults." However, the, subjects were only more likely to have leanings to the left if they were also socially active during adolescence.

  // So, it's not your fault.

  (tags: Genetics liberalism numbersandstudies psychology)
• Electronic Cigarette by blu E Cigarette – Home
  (tags: christmasgiftguide shopping smoking tobacco)
• The End of Men – Magazine – The Atlantic
  // This article was entirely interesting.
  (tags: business culture demographics education feminism gender men politics society weekendreading women)
• YouTube – Fr. Barron and Dr. Scott Hahn discuss Modernity, the Bible and Theology
  (tags: faith modernlife ludditism futurism video)
• Democrats Say Jon Stewart Rally Will Spur Enthusiasm to Vote – Bloomberg
  Quote:"Democrats have struggled to motivate the young voters who helped the party win the White House in 2008. This year, 45 percent of voters under age 30 say they will definitely cast ballots Nov. 2, compared with 76 percent of those 30 and older, according to a Pew study conducted in September.

  Voting rates for people under 30 were at least 20 percentage points lower than for older people in every midterm congressional election since 1972 and six of 10 presidential elections, according to a chart by Circle, a youth-voting research group at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts.

  The only years in which the national under-30 voting rate topped 50 percent were in 1972, the first time 18-to-20-year- olds had the vote, in 1992 when Clinton was elected, and in 2008 when Obama won, according to the Circle chart.

  (tags: election politicalhackery)
• Nuns stand to profit from auction of rare Honus Wagner card – Big League Stew – MLB  – Yahoo! Sports
  // The myth of the Wagner card. There are actually older, rarer cards of better players that sell for one-tenth the price of this card. And this card is ugly, trimmed, laminated, pinhole, terrible card. If it goes for more than 20,000 dollars it would be a travesty.
  (tags: baseballcards)
• Nasa plan Hundred Year Starship – the mission that will take astronauts to Mars and leave them there forever | Mail Online
  (tags: futurism space weekendreading)

links for 2010-10-26

• http://youdontwannabethatguy.blogspot.com/
  (tags: randomlinks blogs maleness)
• Video released by conservative activist claims to show undercover footage at NJEA conference | NJ.com
  (tags: James.Okeefe education teaching video)
• Capitol Alert: Mailers making a stink in CD 47 contest#storylink=fblike#storylink=fblike#storylink=fblike
  //Awesome
  (tags: martyemail politicalhackery)
• Prevent Diabetes – Mediterranean Cuisine – Health Tip – RealAge
  Quote:"You could be a whopping 83 percent less likely to develop type 2 diabetes with this menu choice: Mediterranean fare.

  What's Mediterranean fare, you ask? Why, any dish that emphasizes fish, olive oil, legumes, whole grains, fruit, nuts, or vegetables and minimizes full-fat dairy and red meat. Simple, right?

  (tags: diabetes diet health numbersandstudies)
• The sneakiest new shopping scams – Yahoo! Shopping
  // Soom good info
  (tags: finance safety scams security weekendreading)
• Cuba self-employed to pay taxes up to 50 percent – Yahoo! News
  // So Cuba is like America…
  (tags: cuba economics taxation)
• Obama assails GOP on clouded final campaign push – Yahoo! News
  Quote:"He said Republicans had driven the economy into a ditch and then stood by and criticized while Democrats pulled it out. Now that progress has been made, he said, "we can't have special interests sitting shotgun. We gotta have middle class families up in front. We don't mind the Republicans joining us. They can come for the ride, but they gotta sit in back."

  // Do I want to go there…..do I want to go there….

  ….

  ….

  No, I won't go there.

  (tags: obama)

links for 2010-10-24

• MPR-Humphrey Poll: Obama could struggle in MN in 2012 | Minnesota Public Radio News
  Quote:"The poll surveyed 750 likely Minnesota voters between last Wednesday and Sunday. It has a conventional margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points and a more conservative margin of 5.1 percentage points.

  The poll shows Minnesotans are split on Obama's job performance: 48 percent approve, 48 percent don't.

  (tags: mnpolitics obama polls)
• Bees' tiny brains beat computers, study finds | World news | The Guardian
  Quote:"The conundrum involves finding the shortest route that allows a travelling salesman to call at all the locations he has to visit. Computers solve the problem by comparing the length of all possible routes and choosing the one that is shortest.

  Bees manage to reach the same solution using a brain the size of a grass seed.

  Dr Nigel Raine, from Royal Holloway's school of biological sciences, said: "Foraging bees solve travelling salesman problems every day. They visit flowers at multiple locations and, because bees use lots of energy to fly, they find a route which keeps flying to a minimum."

  (tags: bees computers cool martyemail mathematics)
• MinnPost – Braublog: Dayton over Emmer by 7 in Sunday Strib poll; Horner's percentage drops
  // Do people really think Emmer gets just 34% of the vote on election day? In this political climate? Anyone?
  (tags: elections2010 mnpolitics polls)

links for 2010-10-23

• Solomon Burke – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  Quote:"Burke enjoyed a special relationship with the Catholic Church throughout his life and in 2000, he and his family were invited to perform at the Jubilee of the Family at the Vatican. He was invited back to the Vatican by both Pope John Paul II and Pope Benedict XVI for the Christmas celebration.

  // the guy also had 21 children.

  (tags: music faith catholic obits biography)

links for 2010-10-22

• Dixie Elixirs & Medibles — the patient’s choice for alternative MMJ treatment.
  // Dude.
  (tags: christmasgiftguide drugwar martyemail)
• 'Hurt U.S. Congress' a sign of political times – Washington Times
  // "Hurt" is also a great song describing this current congress.
  (tags: politicaltechnology politicians politics)
• _teleprompter-to-make-a-debut-in-parliament-when-obama-speaks_
  Quote:"A teleprompter will be in use for the first time in the Central Hall of Parliament when US President Barack Obama addresses MPs on November eight.

  // It will be a big night for teleprompters everywhere.

  (tags: martyemail obama teleprompter)
• Republican congressional candidate says violent overthrow of government is 'on the table' | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News | Texas Regional News
  // Meh, that's Texas for ya.
  (tags: Crazies gop texas)
• PsycNET – Option to Buy
  Citation:"When it comes to pay, do the thin win? The effect of weight on pay for men and women.By Judge, Timothy A.; Cable, Daniel M.
  Journal of Applied Psychology, Sep 20, 2010
  (tags: business gender numbersandstudies psychology weight)
• Can Being Overweight Keep You From Climbing the Corporate Ladder? – The Juggle – WSJ
  Quote:"Thus being overweight seems to have “negative career consequences for women, but not for men,” says the study; “this reflects a greater tolerance, and possibly even a preference, for a larger size among men,” but not among women, who are held to “harsher weight standards.” Past research has shown that overweight women in particular face discrimination in hiring, promotion and wages. Some studies have even suggested overweight men are actually paid more than slimmer male executives.
  (tags: bariatrics business numbersandstudies)
• For Women, It Pays to Be Very Thin – The Juggle – WSJ
  Quote:"The study is the first look at the effects of being very thin on men vs. women. Separate studies of 11,253 Germans and 12,686 U.S. residents led by Timothy A. Judge of the University of Florida found very thin women, weighing 25 pounds less than the group norm, earned an average $15,572 a year more than women of normal weight. Women continued to experience a pay penalty as their weight increased above average levels, although a smaller one — presumably because they had already violated social norms for the ideal female appearance. A woman who gained 25 pounds above the average weight earned an average $13,847 less than an average-weight female.

  // Someone call an Evolutionary Social Psychologist!

  (tags: business career gender numbersandstudies psychology women)
• Where are they now?: ‘Boom Goes the Dynamite’ guy gets job in Alexandria | INFORUM | Fargo, ND
  // He's Alexandria's 3rd real celebrity, behind Brock Lesnar and former World's #1 Golfer (seriously) Tom Lehman.
  (tags: alexandria personal martyemail)