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Liveblogging the Twins Tonight

The game begins at 6:30, and I’ll start the liveblog just before.

Click Here

Also, you can go to my little used, unknown Twins blog to do the same.

Liveblog results after the jump.

 

Twins Game #163 (09/30/2008) 
Powered by: CoveritLive
6:02
Unlike the disaster at the the 1st VP debate, there are no Spike Lee movies standing between me and the internet today
6:02
But, like normal, I’m doing this while at work, so I might get distracted as the night continues
6:03
The game starts at 6:30, so I’ll probably not be doing much between now and then, you can submit comments and questions, if anyone happens to be watching, and I’ll do my best to answer them. Â Otherwise, I’ll try to preview the game the best I can before the first pitch.
6:04
Why a coinflip BTW? Â This game should be played in the metrodome.
6:10
I prefer a meritocracy over lottery (which might be why I’m Republican)
6:11
How many HRs will Blackburn give up before being yanked? Â I’m putting the over/under low, at 2
6:13
John Danks has a very good 3.94 xFIP, so the Twins might get handcuffed early
6:17

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6:18
The above is the graph from Tradesports on Chicago to win
6:18
so it’s just about 60/40 in favor of Chicago in the futures market
6:20
Tradesports is also betting the game won’t be low scoring and that it won’t be close (1-2 runs).
6:24
Blachburn’s xFIP is right aroung 4.50, which is pretty good, but a 6.75 ERA in September
6:25
Danks also hasn’t been great in September, but his ERA is 2 runs lower than Blackburn’s
6:36
Cuddyer is DHing? Â I question that move
6:38
Span gets a big walk, nice
6:39
Well, the top of our lineup is freely swinging away at pitcher’s pitches
6:43
And that is why hit and runs don’t work
6:53
No runs after the first, we’re still in it
7:01
Computer problems, will be back shortly
7:02 [Standby]  Laptop hiccup, back once I give Bill Gates a concussion
7:11
and I’m back
7:16
I don’t think the Twins will win a low scoring game. Â If they don’t put a 4 spot on the board, I think the Sox will win
7:19
Punto nearly got picked off, I wonder how many outs Punto has given up for the Twins on the basepaths.
7:20
Watching the Tradesports contract, it continues to move but has been trending towards 55-45, a few points below where it was before the game
7:21
Middle of third, no score.
7:23

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7:24
Fan graphs has this game, as a product of win probability, pretty smooth
7:25
Fan graphs has this game 53-47 in the favor of the Sox
7:27
Wow, talk about a boring game to liveblog. Â Pitcher’s duels, I don’t care what others say, are really boring. Â People who like pitchers duels also tend to like boating on a pontoon boat, walking around amusement parks watching other people have fun, and birdwatching
7:31
Mauer strikes out, Danks is looking good.
7:34
As the game continues to go on scoreless, the odds of a White Sox win keeps going up since the hometeam gets the last at bat. Â So not scoring = bad
7:49
is cuddyer trying to get hurt again?
7:54

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7:56
People laugh at me when I say I would create a “mad scientist” 40 man roster which would include guys like Usain Bolt or gymnast Nastia Liukin, but I think either one could have scored on that flyball
7:56

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7:57
Seriously, it’d be tougher for AJ to try to tag Liukin than for someone to hit AJ hard enough to knock the ball loose
7:58

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8:00
[Comment From dana]
don’t have access to cable right now. is the game as good as the stats suggest
8:01
Yeah, I think these sorts of games are a bit boring, but they do build up a lot of tension
8:01
I like seeing WPA charts swing wildly rather than stay flat
8:03
[Comment From dana]
is that this graph you are posting
8:04
I’m posting two graphs, one is the futures contract from tradesports, it represents the amount of money people are betting on a particular outcome of the game. Â So, people are willing to spend 58 bucks to winn 100 bucks on the outcome of a Sox win, it’s a proxy of betting odds
8:05
The other graph (the green themed one) is from fan graphs. Â It shows Win Probability (based on tens of thousands of games over the last twenty years of play)
8:06
Right now, based on the empirical WPA, the Sox have a 58% chance of winning wile over at Tradesports, the Sox are a little better at a 60% chance (more properly read: 60 dollar contract)
8:09
Twins bullpen ERA Â 3.88 Â WPA 3.55

Sox Bullpen ERA 4.01 Â Â Â WPA 5.05

8:09
[Comment From dana]
what is the name of that sabre book again?
8:11
Which one? Â Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract is a good one, Tom Tango’s Percentage Baseball is instructional, there’s another one from Baseball Prospectus called “Baseball Between the Numbers”
8:12
[Comment From dana]
the wpa is adjusted for past performance correct?
8:12
WPA is based on past performance, yes
8:12
[Comment From dana]
what about mijares?
8:15
I think he’s the real deal. Â His career minor league line is 3.46 ERA Â 1.34 WHIP Â and this season he did a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 whip
8:15
Don’t know why that highlighted
8:16
His career WHiP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) is a little high, but his strike out to walk and his strike outs per inning ratios are good
8:16
[Comment From dana]
will he compete with neshek or will they platoon them?
8:18
Depends, Neshek might not be the same pitcher for a while. Â From his interview with Seth Stohs a few weeks ago, it sounded like their goal was either to injure Neshek in the next couple of months so they would know if he needed surgery or not, or if he didn’t get injured he would be 100% by spring training
8:19
Thome HR, at least it’s a solo job
8:19
[Comment From dana]
we win this game, does gardenhire get manager of the year
8:19
I don’t think so, I think they give it to Joe Madden
8:21
[Comment From dana]
ur right show the vwpa now
8:21
Working on it
8:22
The tradesports CHW Win contract just went up to 80 bucks, and the WPA is 79
8:23

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8:23

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8:24
[Comment From dana]
20/80
8:25
This from Pat Neshek’s Blog:I have not had an update for awhile and that’s because there really hasn’t been  too much  talk about.  I’m still down here in Ft. Myers…I’m expected to be down here until November rehabbing my arm.  So far everything has been going as planned.  What suprises me even more is that I have not had a single setback yet…I probably just jinxed myself.  I feel good though, I’m letting the ball go with good speed and velocity and it feels like I can play again.  Last week I did my last session of 40 throws at 120ft. with 75% effort, it went great.  This week I’m going every other day at different lengths…10 throws at 60ft.  10 at 75ft. 10 at 90 ft. ect.  If everything goes as planned I will be throwing off the mound in 3-4 weeks.  The thing that scares me the most is when I start throwing my slider.  They said I can throw my slider again once I get on the mound.  When I hurt my arm it was on a slider and since I’ve been throwing I cannot wait to throw the slider again and test my arm…this will be my biggest test of things I have left.  Once I get off the mound I will throw bullpens for about 3 weeks and if everything goes well I will be free to resume my offseason, as if I haven’t had the longest offseason of my life so far!
8:27
WPA moved up to 82-18 on the Junior double while the Tradesports contract is settling right at 80, so there’s just a little hint at market inefficiency there
8:28
1 run through 6 and 1/3 isn’t too bad, it’s a lot more than I expected from Blackburn.
8:29
Unfortunately, the Twins offense hasn’t shown up yet.
8:29
[Comment From dana]
that is about all your can ask for
8:29
Yeah, huge game, rookie who’s been struggling, Blackburn did well
8:30
[Comment From dana]
we have come back against these guys before
8:32
Yeah, the game is not out of reach. Â With 2 innings to pitch and a 4+ ERA, there’s about a 50% chance (using dirty on the fly math) of the Twins scoring at least one run
8:32
[Comment From dana]
send another walk here?
8:32
Sorry, didn’t get to that one in time. Â Though the numbers show teams overdo the intentional walks a lot
8:33
[Comment From dan]
so, sending cuddy, good idea?
8:34
I say no. Â The ball wasn’t deep enough and even a weak throw from junior (two hops at least) was enough to get Cuddyer by a step. Â If it’s someone faster, sure. Â But, and this is just my general conservatism here, I say keep Cuddyer at third and take the 30% chance he’ll score over the next out
8:35
[Comment From dana]
im outta here. go twins. nice live chat. talk to you later
8:36
Glad I could amuse you for a bit Dana
8:37
[Comment From dan]
now, just dan
8:37
At least I can be sure of your gender
8:37
[Comment From dan]
maybe
8:38
Well, it’s not like this is a San Francisco Giants game we’re watching here
8:38
[Comment From dan]
the whole coin flip thing is foolish
8:40
No kidding. Â The Twins win the season series, home field advantage in the playoffs is based on record, yet a coin flip decided who gets the advantage of hitting last in game #163? Â That needs to be changed
8:40
I have the same problem with OT in pro football, the team which gets the coin flip gets the bigger advantage
8:40
[Comment From dan]
of course, we say that because we lost the flip, but still
8:41
I’ll be principled in my political life (well, at least some of the time) but in sports, intellectual honesty is a dirty word
8:48
[Comment From dan]
so why are the twins’ bats silent? young team not confident on the road?
8:50
I don’t think it’s that, I think most of the early at bats looked good, patient hitting, working counts. Â But without a lot slugging, you have to rely on stringing hits together and that’s harder to do than hitting home runs
8:52
[Comment From dan]
but 2 hits?
8:53

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8:53

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8:54
Yeah, 2 hits is pretty bad, but the Sox have put their best pitchers into the game
8:55
[Comment From dan]
uh oh
8:56
Yeah, there’s not much else to say
8:56
[Comment From dan]
heckuva rebuilding year
8:57
Yeah, you won’t get many complaints from me about how this year ended up compared to how I thought it would go, but next year, the AL Central is so strong, I just don’t see us staying competitive
8:57
fin
8:58
[Comment From dan]
sucky way to lose a game
8:58
It come down to a home run. Â How many times do you see an ill-timed home run?
8:59
Any closing comments before I shut ‘er down?
9:01
That was the first 1-0 game the Sox had won all SEASON
9:04
That’s it. Â Be sure to check in with the Twins Podcast on Sunday, live at 8pm, it will be the last Twins Podcast this season. Â http://blogtalkradio.com/andrade
9:04

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9:04
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3 Responses

  1. you bastard.

  2. Sorry, I didn’t read the context.

  3. brilliant

Comments are closed.

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