Minnesota 2008 Election Watch List

So far, it’s been all doom and gloom from me when it comes to the 2008 election. The reality is things look worse now then they’ll probably end up being. Considering some of the pressing issues voters will be looking at during the election (gas/energy prices, economy) and what the Democrats have to offer (no gas price solution, no energy solutions outside of waiting for better technology, and tax and spend economic solutions) there’s slim room for hope at the national level. As for the state level, after huge defeats in 2004 and 2006, it will be hard to imagine 2008 could get any worse for the MNGOP than things already are.

In this vein I have a series of ten indicators which will help us better understand the political landscape in Minnesota in the near future.

-The Presidential margin. In 2000, George Bush was able to get within (working from memory here) 4 or 5 points of winning Minnesota. In 2004, Bush was able to close the gap and get within around 2 points of winning Minnesota. The Democrats in 2004 saw most of their gains come from Naderites who switched Democrat while Bush actually increased the number of voters pulling the levers for him anywhere from 150,000 and 200,000 people. In 2008, John McCain could close the gap even more. His ability to appeal to the political center could throw Minnesota into his column. If anything, if McCain can keep Minnesota inside 3 or 4 points it would go a long way towards keeping Minnesota as a “purple” state rather than a blue one (though, I still think Minnesota has turned hard left).

-The size of Bachmann’s victory in Minnesota’s 6th. Michele Bachmann is the conservative’s conservative. Unrelenting, ideological, forceful, she’s turning herself into a one-stop conservative talk-shop with her blogging, youtubing and actions in office. She’s high profile and I think she likes it that way. She even did better in the 6th than Rep. Kennedy did. If she expands on her previous election victory Michele Bachmann could become one of the more important conservatives in office. A big victory would enable her to take up a national soupbox and spread the conservative word without fear. If she squeaks by with a narrow victory she might contain her fire-breathing conservative status for better times.

Update: I need to correct an error here. Bachmann did not do better than Kennedy did in 2004. It was Wetterling who did worse. This was probably because of a strong Independence Party candidate in the race in 2006. I might have been thinking Bachmann did better in the 6th in 2006 than Kennedy did in 2006 (in his Senate run) but a quick look at the numbers shows that to be untrue. All this does is make this race more important to watch.

-Kline’s District is turning, how much? While I would put Rep. Kline into the category of “coasting to re-election” I think the 2nd is turning into a swing district. How Coleman and McCain do in the 2nd will give us a clearer picture as to the true makeup of the voters there. An even better indicator? How the State House races go. While Kline should enjoy the protection of incumbency for a long time in his district, it could very easily come into play if he ever decides to retire or move up the political ladder.

-Franken’s tactics. Right now Al Franken is the underdog in the Senate race. He’s been getting hammered left and right. His campaign is doing a terrible job at controlling the message, framing issues, managing the press or answering critics. I don’t think Al Franken is the problem, it’s his campaign staff. If Franken changes his tactics (and fires most of his staff) he could turn this race into a tossup. If the change in tactics and message, the shakeup, fails to move the electorate his way then I would say Minnesota hasn’t taken the hard left-turn I think it has.

-The 3rd Congressional District. The open seat among Minnesota’s Congressional Districts is the one being vacated by the retiring Jim Ramstad. The District encompasses a ring of suburbs which have been turning Democrat across the nation. I think the district is more conservative than the prevailing wisdom but in this environment it’s hard for me believe the election will be a cakewalk for Erik Paulsen. If Madia does win, the 3rd could become a permanent DFL seat.

-MNGOP House Caucus pain, over? I doubt it. The House Caucus might think it has a chance to win back a few seats, and that might have been true in a different political environment. Not only are the Democrats running high nationally, in Minnesota the DFL normally does better in presidential election years. One more thing, the MNGOP has had 9 incumbents decide to not seek re-election versus just 5 DFL reps. With the MNGOP defending more open districts it will be harder to go after freshman DFL incumbents. If the MNGOP can keep themselves in a position to protect a gubernatorial veto, it would be a huge victory.

-Pawlenty as VP, Molnau as the first woman guv? I think Pawlenty would be a decent pick to be VP for McCain. If he takes the job and if McCain wins, then Carol Molnau becomes the first woman to serve as governor. I would worry if Molnau would then run for the Governor’s office in 2010. She would not be able to win. If none of this happens and Pawlenty stays in office, the 2010 gubernatorial race might still end up being competitive.

-Public reaction to tax increases. Most polls suggest the majority of voters don’t want new taxes. More accurately, voters think they are taxed enough to too much. Voters don’t want new taxes, but they don’t think tax cuts will help the economy. Some wouldn’t mind taxing other people but from what I’ve seen, the voters want to stand pat on taxes. No new ones, no cuts. If the voters feel any pressure from new taxes (both in Minnesota and nationally if Obama wins in November) it could hasten the return of the GOP.

-MN is in a recession (or very close) right now. Watching how the economy shifts between now and Election Day should indicate how the state will vote in November. Continued bad news will lean independent voters to the Democrats. If there is a recovery, it should soften the coming DFL routing of the GOP. A long-term slow-growth economy, a persistent one of a decade or more, might help the GOP down the line but it’s too far into the future to properly predict.

-Is the Independence Party dead? If not, the DFL might not have the stranglehold it thinks it does. If so, say goodbye MNGOP relevancy for a long time. The IP takes votes away from the DFL more so than it does the MNGOP, at about a 2:1 clip. The IP has been slipping in relevancy for a while now but if it somehow turns this around, it could be another sign of hope for the GOP.

There you go; those are the bellwethers for the future political climate in Minnesota.