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I made an error in my prediction yesterday, I had Kerry winning Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Hawaii. I have Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and West Virginia going to Bush, which means Kerry wins 279-259. In the popular vote, I have Bush up by a half a percent, 49%-48.5%. Voter turnout will pass 50% nationwide. Fifty-one million voters to Bush, about fifty million to Kerry, the slack being pulled by Nader et al. We’ll call this a 60% confidence interval.

I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt it. Undecideds in swing states are going to break Kerry, especially in Hawaii, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

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3 Responses

  1. Just for kicks, I looked at the possible tie scenarios assuming 12 tossup “blocks” (I’m including the 2nd District in Maine, so I can’t just say states)…these include the aforementioned district (worth 1EV), NH, PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, FL, NM, NV, and HI. There are 58 possible ties assuming the other states go as they should. Of those, several are quite credible, including the one that I find the most likely at this point (Bush wins FL, WI, NM, NV while the others break for Kerry).

    While I have a lurid fascination with the possibility of a tie, I also find that predicting the ties allows you to get a general feel for who has the better shot of winning the race. While anything could happen, I think Bush has an easier task ahead of him. If he wins just FL and OH from that previous group, he forces a tie. According to recent polling, he’s ahead in both (although well within the margin of error). As a result, I think that we have a greater likelihood of seeing President Bush in office on January 21 than Senator Kerry.

    I’m also going to predict that the Republicans will gain 3 seats in the Senate and lose 2 or 3 in the House (I’ll spare you the details). If this happens, I imagine there will be significant feces throwing in the Democratic party, and Terry McAuliffe will finally (and deservedly) lose his job. They won’t have to worry about removing Daschle from his leadership post…he’s about to be fired from that job by the South Dakotans.

    So, the most interesting question about all of this is…are you ready for Hillary vs. Rudy in 2008?

  2. I’m sticking by my prediction.

    And in ’08…

    If it is Rudy Guiliani (who I don’t think can win the GOP nomination) then I have every intention of working for a pro-life candidate. Whether it be CP, or some independant pro-life candidate.

  3. The question of Giuliani’s chance of winning the Republican nomination really is an interesting one, and when I talk about this with my politically inclined friends here it is a common theme. That said, I don’t know who is going to establish themself over the next four years. If the field is as lackluster as I think it’s going to be, I think Giuliani will squeek through. I would have loved to see Jeb Bush vs. Rudy, but I doubt that Bush III has any plans of running for President before 2012.

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