I made my Election 2004 prediction on my political blog, http://martinandrade.blogspot.com
In 2000 I embarrased myself by saying Bush would win the popular vote by 2%, and that the electoral college would be a landslide. Let’s see if it happens again!
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I made an error in my prediction yesterday, I had Kerry winning Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Hawaii. I have Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and West Virginia going to Bush, which means Kerry wins 279-259. In the popular vote, I have Bush up by a half a percent, 49%-48.5%. Voter turnout will pass 50% nationwide. Fifty-one million voters to Bush, about fifty million to Kerry, the slack being pulled by Nader et al. We’ll call this a 60% confidence interval.
I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt it. Undecideds in swing states are going to break Kerry, especially in Hawaii, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
Filed under: National, Political | 3 Comments »
I have a few things, first, celebrity poker is the dumbest thing ever, more on that later; and apprentice sucks, more on that later.
The following video is hilarious:
http://www.dailyrecycler.com/blog/2004/10/choice.html
Here is the website of that direct mail company that the CRs use:
http://www.respdynamics.com/
And single people don’t practive safe sex:
http://www.ncbuy.com/news/2004-10-29/1010958.html
“According to a sex survey by the Adam & Eve sex toy company, only 30 percent of singles make it a point to practice safe sex every time they jump between the sheets.”
They might get AIDs, but hey, they have high self esteems right?
Filed under: Cultural Matters, Misc, Weekend Reading | 2 Comments »
Why I will never be a College Republican:
> Fund-raising group milks vulnerable senior citizens
> Copyright 2004, The Seattle Times Co.
> By David Postman and Jim Brunner
> mailto:jbrunner@seattletimes.com
> Seattle Times staff reporters
> The College Republican National Committee has raised $6.3 million this
> year through an aggressive and misleading fund-raising campaign that
> collected money from senior citizens who thought they were giving to the
> election efforts of President Bush and other top Republicans.
> Many of the top donors were in their 80s and 90s. The donors wrote
> checks – sometimes hundreds and, in at least one case, totaling more
> than $100,000 – to groups with official sounding-names such as
> “Republican Headquarters 2004,” “Republican Elections Committee” and the
> “National Republican Campaign Fund.”
> But all of those groups, according to the small print on the letters,
> were simply projects of the College Republicans, who collected all of
> the checks.
> And little of the money went to election efforts.
> Of the money spent by the group this year, nearly 90 percent went to
> direct-mail vendors and postage expenses, according to records filed
> with the Internal Revenue Service.
> Some of the elderly donors, meanwhile, wound up bouncing checks and
>emptying their bank accounts.
> “I don’t have any more money,” said Cecilia Barbier, a 90-year-old
> retired church council worker in New York City. “I’m stopping giving to
> everybody. That was all my savings that they got.”
> Profile
> > > College Republicans
> Serves as the party’s outreach organization on college campuses. It has
> been a starting place for many prominent conservatives, including Bush
> campaign adviser Karl Rove.
> Spending
> About 90 percent of College Republicans’ reported spending this year
> appeared to go into fund-raising expenses, according to a Times analysis
> of reports filed with the IRS.
> Contrast with other 527 groups
> Of the $20 million the anti-Bush group MoveOn.org spent, according to
> its filings, 93 percent went to media, advertising, marketing and
> polling. Of the $13.7 million spent by the anti-John Kerry group Swift
> Boat Veterans for Truth, 90 percent went to media, advertising and media
> consulting.
> > Barbier said she “wised up.” But not before she made more than 300
> donations totaling nearly $100,000 this year, the group’s fund-raising
> records show.
> Now, she said, “I’m really scrounging.”
> In Van Buren, Ark., Monda Jo Millsap, 68, said she emptied her savings
> account by writing checks to College Republicans, then got a bank loan
> of $5,000 and sent that, too, before totaling her donations at more than
> $59,000.
> College Republicans serve as the party’s outreach organization on
> college campuses. The group has been a starting place for many prominent
> conservatives, including Bush adviser Karl Rove, anti-tax activist
> Grover Norquist and former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed.
> Once a part of the Republican National Committee, the group is now
> independent. It is set to help get out the vote for Tuesday’s election.
> Officers of the College Republican National Committee did not respond to
> questions about their fund raising.
> “I think the College Republican National Committee is an amazing
> organization which is getting a lot of young people involved in the
> political process,” said Paul Gourley, the group’s treasurer, who signed
> many of the fund-raising letters.
> He referred questions to the group’s communications director, Alison
> Aikele, who declined to comment.
> An attorney and adviser to the group defended the fund raising.
> “We have tens of thousands of donors, and I wouldn’t extrapolate a
> message about an entire organization by sampling less than a tenth of a
> percent of the donors,” said Craig Engle, a Washington, D.C., attorney
> and outside adviser to the College Republicans.
> “There are tens of thousands of very, very satisfied and happy donors
> that enjoy a relationship with the College Republicans and their
> fund-raising process.”
> Internal dissent
> But since at least 2001, some leaders of College Republicans have
> objected to the tone and targeting of the fund raising done by Response
> Dynamics, the Virginia company that handles the direct-mail campaign.
> Response Dynamics officials could not be reached for comment.
> “We felt their fund-raising practices were deceptive, to say the least,”
> said George Gunning, former treasurer of the College Republicans.
> Gunning said he and two other board members fought to cut ties with
> Response Dynamics but were blocked by other leaders led by Scott
> Stewart, the chairman of the College Republicans from 1999 to 2003. As
> chairman, Stewart was the paid, full-time manager of the organization.
> Gunning said he was assured that fund-raising tactics would change.
> The board debated the fund-raising practices after the family of an
> elderly Indiana woman with Alzheimer’s disease demanded that her
> donations be returned. The woman’s family said it had sent a registered
> letter asking that she be taken off the mailing list, but the
> solicitations continued.
> Only after a newspaper reported on the story did the College Republicans
> refund $40,000 to the family, according to Jackie Boyle, one of the
> woman’s nieces.
> “I think this is a nationwide scam,” Boyle said on hearing of recent
> complaints. “They’re covering the whole country … they need to be
> investigated.”
> Stewart is the director of Bush’s Nevada campaign operation, and
> campaign officials said he would not be available to comment for this
> story.
> The Washington State Attorney General’s Office received at least six
> complaints about the College Republicans fund-raising letters from 2000
> to 2002, but has no record of any complaints since then. The complaints
> cited “fund raising representations” and “senior exploitation.” The
> Attorney General’s Office wrote letters to the College Republicans, but
> a spokeswoman could not determine the outcome of the complaints
> yesterday.
> In response to the Indiana family’s complaints, College Republicans
> worked to be able to keep more of the money raised by Response Dynamics,
> got more oversight of the content of the letters and had been working to
> improve “the message of our solicitations and to change the contract
> further so that our letters target a wider age spectrum,” according to a
> summary of a 2001 College Republicans board retreat.
> The group considered ending its affiliation with Response Dynamics and
> was preparing a financial plan “so that we might terminate the contract
> in the future,” the summary said.
> But the young Republicans and the veteran fund-raisers stayed together.
> This year, as millions of dollars flowed in, College Republicans falsely
> claimed in letters that checks were only trickling in and that the group
> was in a constant budget crisis.
> And the elderly continued to be a major source of donations.
> There are far more retired people giving to College Republicans than to
> any other IRS-regulated independent political committee, IRS records
> indicate.
> The Times was able to determine the ages of 49 of the top 50 individual
> donors to the College Republicans. The median age of the donors is 85,
> and 14 of them are 90 or older.
> “That can’t be true”
> Donors interviewed this week frequently expressed disbelief when they
> were told how much they gave to the College Republicans.
> “That can’t be true,” said Francis Lehar, a 91-year-old retired music
> publisher, when he was told records showed he gave the College
> Republicans nearly $23,000. “I have donated to dozens of Republican
> causes. Some of them might be the Republican Party organizations.”
> From January through September, the Massachusetts man wrote 90 checks to
> the group, records show.
> “It surprises me that it goes to them and not to the other names that
> they had,” he said. “I admire their skill in writing letters.”
> The letters are computer-generated, personalized form letters, but the
> recipients often view them as personal correspondence.
> “All the kids that were the head of this organization, they would keep
> saying, ‘You’ve got to keep on or we won’t be able to keep up with
> Kerry.’ So they kept on me,” said a retired bookkeeper who was one of
> the group’s most generous donors.
> She spoke on the condition she not be identified.
> She grew concerned when repeated letters came earlier this year asking
> for donations for a “Republican Headquarters 2004 Membership Card.”
> The card was merely a block of text inside a dotted line on the back of
> the letter. The holder was supposed to cut it out and carry it with her.>
> But the letter was infused with urgency.
> “If I do not have your completed RH membership renewal form within the
> next ten days, your membership will be put on suspension,” one letter said.
> “President Bush cannot afford your membership and involvement in the
> Republican Party to be wavering at this crucial time.”
> The group wanted a donation of $25 to $500 for the card. If the donor
> declined, he or she was urged to send at least $5 “to cover the cost of
> having the card printed for you.”
> “You had to pay something for the membership card,” the retired
> bookkeeper said. “I sent in four different checks to him and every time
> he said he didn’t receive them.”
> The four checks totaled $1,105.
> “He kept saying he was going to cancel me. He was constantly asking for
> money.”
> For her and other donors, the mail was part nuisance, part companion.
> Several spoke of sorting the mail and writing checks almost as their job
> this campaign year. And many thought their work alone would make the
> difference in a Bush victory.
> “And they kept telling me I’ve got to do this or we can’t win,” the
> retired bookkeeper said. “You see, I was the only one. They said the
> others had quit. I was the only one they were writing to, I thought.”
> Where the money goes
> The College Republicans had another warning in September 2003, when the
> Center for Public Integrity, a Washington, D.C.-based watchdog group,
> issued a report on the explosive fund-raising growth by the College
> Republicans. The report noted that several elderly donors who were
> contacted did not appear to know to whom they had given money.
> Response Dynamics, its affiliates and other companies related to the
> fund raising get most of the money raised by the College Republicans.
> About $9 million of the College Republicans’ reported spending this year
> appeared to go into fund-raising expenses, according to a Times analysis
> of reports filed with the IRS.
> About $313,000, roughly 3 percent, went for travel, convention expenses
> and “hospitality.” About $210,000 went to payroll expenses, helping pay
> for campus organizers who have been drumming up support for the GOP
> ticket among young people.
> The large amount of money devoted to fund raising, and the small amount
> for political activities, is unusual among the top ranks of the
> burgeoning field of so-called 527 independent political groups.
> Of the $20 million the anti-Bush group MoveOn.org spent, according to
> its filings, 93 percent went to media, advertising, marketing and
> polling.
> Of the $13.7 million spent by the anti-John Kerry group Swift Boat
> Veterans for Truth, 90 percent went to media, advertising and media
> consulting.
> Who signs the letters
> Most of the College Republicans’ fund-raising appeals come signed by two
> young Republicans who, in the letters, are billed as directors and
> officers of the projects needing money.
> “National officers for the College Republicans have to wear a lot of
> hats,” said Gourley, one of the signers, who is a junior at the
> University of South Dakota.
> He would not answer specific questions about the fund raising.
> He said he knows his name appears on letters sent from Washington, D.C.
> Asked if he approves each letter, he said, “We have certain processes
> set up.”
> Matthew Kennicott, listed in spending reports as the College
> Republicans’ political director, also signs letters. He could not be
> reached.
> Ryan Call, former co-chairman of the College Republicans, said that when
> he was there, the group didn’t have a lot of involvement in crafting
> messages for fund-raising letters.
> “When you contract stuff out, you cede a lot of control away to the
> people you are working with,” said Call, 28, a law student at the
> University of Denver.
> Officials of Response Dynamics have publicly described their strategy.
> “Direct mail fund raising means asking for money and asking for it
> often,” company President Ron Kanfer wrote in a 1991 article on the art
> of the pitch.
> “You must literally force them to send money.”
> Breathless tone
> An August fund-raising letter showed that aggressive approach, telling
> donors there was a Democratic conspiracy to intercept the committee’s
> mail:
> “Given what I’ve learned, you and I must take every precaution necessary.
> “Apparently the Democrats don’t have any concern about hurting you, your
> family or America.
> “Their sole concern is revenge – vengeance – retribution.”
> With the approach of Tuesday’s election, the letters have become even
> more breathless.
> Last Saturday, a donor received what appears to be a photocopied
> handwritten note from the director of one committee: “Please understand
> I have no one else to turn to. This is serious: We will have to close
> our doors!
> “I need your help now!”
> Group growing
> While the vast majority of the money raised goes to pay fund-raising
> expenses, the College Republicans have used some money to expand
> operations.
> The group says it has tripled in size in recent years, with 120,000
> members on 1,148 campuses.
> Rove, Bush’s top political strategist, spoke to College Republican
> leaders during the GOP Convention, and said the group’s organizing was
> “absolutely vital to the election.”
> The group goes door-to-door at college dorms and fraternity and sorority
> houses to register voters and recruit volunteers.
> The College Republicans this year got $220,000 from another GOP group,
> the Republican State Leadership Committee.
> They also received large donations from two more-traditional political
> donors, businessmen John Templeton, who gave $400,000, and Carl Lindner,
> owner of the Cincinnati Reds, who gave $375,000.
> The College Republicans themselves are rarely mentioned in the group’s
> fund-raising letters. There is the occasional letter on College
> Republican National Committee letterhead that talks about the organizing
> work on college campuses.
> The focus is on the presidential campaign, congressional races and the
> constant threat of what they portray as likely liberal victories in
> November.
> The letters imply close connections to Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney,
> Republican leaders and the party organization. The pitches sometimes
> promise that special messages will be hand-delivered to Bush or others
> if they are sent back with a donation.
> Most donors interviewed said they get up to 50 solicitations in the mail
> each day. That pile can include four or more from the College
> Republicans.
> “My house looks like a post office, and I’m not exaggerating,” said Anne
> Kravic, a retired school-district employee in Parma, Ohio.
> Kravic rubber-bands each day’s mail and marks the top of the pile with
> the date. As the bundles take over the house, she has stopped inviting
> people over.
> “I wouldn’t say that a single week passed I didn’t send something and
> sometimes twice a week, depending on how serious the situation was
> according to them,” she said.
> Her small monthly pension cannot keep up with the life of a political
> financier.
> “I’m tired of it. I’m quitting. It is too much for me. My bank account
> has been overdrawn already,” she said.
> Elliot Baines is an 84-year-old Florida retiree who says he has a hard
> time just carrying the mail he gets each day now.
> “It’s almost too much for me to handle,” he said.
> Baines was surprised to hear he had given more than $63,000 and that it
> had all gone to College Republicans. He said he was swayed to give,
> sometimes against his better instincts, by the power of the letters.
> “I thought if I paid them off once it would send them away, but it just
> encourages them to send more,” he said. “It is just a rat race in this>
house to pay off these people and hope that they quit. >
“But they don’t. They keep sending.”
Filed under: College Exploits, GOP | 2 Comments »
Scientists find Hobbits:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=570&u=/nm/20041027/sc_nm/science_hominid_dc_1&printer=1
Elves yet to be discovered, dwarves asked to leave escavation area.
Filed under: MartyEmail, Weird News | 1 Comment »
http://www.hfml.sci.kun.nl/levitation-movies.html
Levitating frogs=cool
http://jill.jazzkeyboard.com/qarticles.html
cool articles
Filed under: MartyEmail, Misc, Weird News | Comments Off
Richard Nixon's Guide to the Multiverse:
The Educator:
"It's contrarian and anti-authoritarian while espousing traditional values, a masterpiece of philosophical tension"
"The most gratuitously offensive person I know"
Mitch Berg, Shot in the Dark
"The consummate political junkie"
King Banaian, SCSU Scholars
